#CAR rebel coalition CPC considerably lost ground over the past 4 weeks (including in Grimari, Bangassou, Boda, Mbaiki, Bossembele, Bossemptele, Yaloke, Baoro and today #Bouar)

THREAD (1) https://twitter.com/CorbeauNews/status/1358680232241205249

2) Given the new offensive of the national armed forces ( #FACA) and allies ( #Russia & #Rwanda), many in the capital #Bangui have hope that the legislative elections scheduled in mid March will be organized in a safer and better conditions than the presidential election last Dec.

3) This new dynamic comforts also several heavyweights of the government who all seek to become president of National Assembly or Prime Minister and were frustrated because rebels had occupied their native towns and electoral constituencies (Baoro, Boali, Mbaiki, etc).

4) It remains uncertain whether the rebel coalition is indeed considerably weakened or simply regrouping with the aim to launch new assaults when the legislative elections will get close.

In some towns, the rebels were defeated. But in the majority, they left without fighting.

5) Amidst all these uncertainties, one thing is sure, the #CAR government is opposed to any formal dialogue before the legislative elections. That means war and fighting will dictate the agenda of the next 5 weeks in the country.

6) Finally, a key battleground will be around the economic corridor Bangui-Cameroon.

The rebels have blocked the corridor since 50 days, strangulating the capital.

CAR & #UN force said it is their absolute priority to re-open the corridor in the coming days. Let's see...