Thread by @districtai, Covid cases and hosps are falling, fast. What can we possibly rule [...]

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districtai

Covid cases and hosps are falling, fast. What can we possibly rule out? Thread (data used in parenthesis):

- Masking? compliance actually increased into this rise...has not increased markedly during the fall (IHME)
- Behavior? no data backing this up (USC Behavior)

1/x

- PCR Ct? WHO put out guidance but besides a small Kansas announcement the CDC has not followed suit (WHO, no CDC announcement)
- Less Testing? Cases have fallen at a much higher percentage than testing has receded (Cases down roughly 50%, Testing 20%, Data: CTP).

2/x

- Variants? Well variants would cause an increase according to the models (these are only models) yet SA and UK are also falling fast. (worldometers)
- Vaccines? Too early for those but we could start seeing effects on keep down severe cases this month (Bloomberg)

3/x

- Herd or Community Immunity? This would not ignite this wave and despite differing levels HI the infection curves have been eerily similar. I do believe this could make the fall steeper and help to suppress Covid though. (covid19-projections)

4/x

So what is it? The explanation that is seemingly being dismissed by Epis is seasonality. I get it. This means all of their NPIs did much more harm than good. Even if you believe in NPIs this means they timed them incorrectly as well. Please see next tweet for explanation:

5/x

Here is an explanation of this theory. It is astonishing to me that Epis and Public Health professionals are immediately dismissing this when you can reasonably eliminate other explanations. Read and discover for yourself.

6/6 https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1358490412705538055?s=20

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1358490412705538055?s=20

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