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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Dylan Moore, 2B/OF
Seattle Mariners
28 years old
Drafted: 2015; Round 7, Pick 3
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
38 G
159 PA
127 AB
.255/.358/.496
8 HR
26 R
17 RBI
12 SB
.368 wOBA
138 wRC+
1.4 WAR
8.8 BB%
27.0 K%
38 G
159 PA
127 AB
.255/.358/.496
8 HR
26 R
17 RBI
12 SB
.368 wOBA
138 wRC+
1.4 WAR
8.8 BB%
27.0 K%
Dylan Moore walks into 2021 as a popular, but highly debated, breakout candidate.
Prior to last season he tallied less than 300 underwhelming PA as a 27 year old.
So how much stock should we put into an impressive 38 game sample size?
Let’s investigate...
Prior to last season he tallied less than 300 underwhelming PA as a 27 year old.
So how much stock should we put into an impressive 38 game sample size?
Let’s investigate...
In 2019 Moore slashed .206/.302/.389 w/ 9 HR over 113 games.
A concerning 33% K rate overshadowed a solid power/speed pace.
Not to mention he constantly tinkered w/ mechanics in order to improve contact. Usually not a great idea in-season.
But the talent/ability was there.
A concerning 33% K rate overshadowed a solid power/speed pace.
Not to mention he constantly tinkered w/ mechanics in order to improve contact. Usually not a great idea in-season.
But the talent/ability was there.
Moore spent the 2019 offseason working w/ SEA to focus on making more consistent contact.
He wanted to be more direct to the ball, shorten up his approach, & decreases swing/miss.
Added alt leg kick timing, raised bat off his shoulder, & stood more upright at the plate.
He wanted to be more direct to the ball, shorten up his approach, & decreases swing/miss.
Added alt leg kick timing, raised bat off his shoulder, & stood more upright at the plate.
This change , along w/ ditching a 2-hand follow through, allowed Moore to have:
Better extension
Better timing
Improve bat to barrel skills.
Contact is key, as he held a 28.3 Whiff% in 2019. Well above league avg of 24.4%.
Better extensionBetter timingImprove bat to barrel skills.Contact is key, as he held a 28.3 Whiff% in 2019. Well above league avg of 24.4%.
“It took some time for me...to figure out what went wrong last year. And if it was a timing thing, if it was something I could change w/ lower half or upper half.” - Dylan Moore
Moore made the adjustment to improve his chances to make contact w/ the barrel & decrease swing/miss
Moore made the adjustment to improve his chances to make contact w/ the barrel & decrease swing/miss
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 24.7%
GB - 35.5%
FB - 39.8%
Pull - 42.6%
Middle - 31.9%
Opp - 25.5%
Hard Hit% - 44.7
DHH% - 13.0
Exit Velocity - 90.4 mph
Max EV - 109.8 mph
Barrel % - 13.8
Launch Angle - 17.3°
sd(LA) - 25.9°
LD - 24.7%
GB - 35.5%
FB - 39.8%
Pull - 42.6%
Middle - 31.9%
Opp - 25.5%
Hard Hit% - 44.7
DHH% - 13.0
Exit Velocity - 90.4 mph
Max EV - 109.8 mph
Barrel % - 13.8
Launch Angle - 17.3°
sd(LA) - 25.9°
Moore doubled his barrel rate (13.8%) while increasing Hard Hit% from 37.1 to 45.7.
The goal to find the barrel was an obvious success but more importantly the quest for more consistent contact is confirmed by a 25.9° sd(LA)
This suggests results were intentional & repeatable.
The goal to find the barrel was an obvious success but more importantly the quest for more consistent contact is confirmed by a 25.9° sd(LA)
This suggests results were intentional & repeatable.
“I wanted to create more consistent contact & more room for error on my swing...more contact points.”
Success
But not successful is his goal to have a more all fields approach. Pull% up 4.5 points w/ Opp% down 2.2 points.
Success
But not successful is his goal to have a more all fields approach. Pull% up 4.5 points w/ Opp% down 2.2 points.
Overall the batted ball quality was fantastic: 81% Hard Hit, 88% Barrel, 75% EV.
DHH% increased 8.6 to 13.0
Moore showed up to Spring Training w/ +15 lbs of muscle & the power translated.
But can the gains be trusted to continue?
DHH% increased 8.6 to 13.0
Moore showed up to Spring Training w/ +15 lbs of muscle & the power translated.
But can the gains be trusted to continue?
We all know it was a short season, but Moore also missed all of Summer Camp due to a positive COVID test.
He also missed 9 games in Aug w/ a wrist sprain before his season ended due to a concussion (HBP).
Just 159 PA is the sample size.
Since 2019: .224 w/ 17 HR 23 SB (441 PA)
He also missed 9 games in Aug w/ a wrist sprain before his season ended due to a concussion (HBP).
Just 159 PA is the sample size.
Since 2019: .224 w/ 17 HR 23 SB (441 PA)
Is that a the real baseline?
Consider this: Before the wrist injury Moore was batting .297/.381/.568 w/ 5 HR 6 SB (20 games)
After? .220/.352/.441 w/ 3 HR 6 SB
He was not the same after the wrist injury but then we are looking at a 20 sample....
...which is ridiculous.
Consider this: Before the wrist injury Moore was batting .297/.381/.568 w/ 5 HR 6 SB (20 games)
After? .220/.352/.441 w/ 3 HR 6 SB
He was not the same after the wrist injury but then we are looking at a 20 sample....
...which is ridiculous.
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 10.7%
Contact: 74.3%
Swing: 41.5%
O-Swing: 27.0%
Z-Swing: 61.2%
O-Contact: 59.8%
Z-Contact: 82.9%
For someone who had a 27% K rate, these metrics are actually fantastic.
Better than league avg O-Swing & SwStr
SwStr: 10.7%
Contact: 74.3%
Swing: 41.5%
O-Swing: 27.0%
Z-Swing: 61.2%
O-Contact: 59.8%
Z-Contact: 82.9%
For someone who had a 27% K rate, these metrics are actually fantastic.
Better than league avg O-Swing & SwStr
The thing that stands out is an overall drop in Swing%. So while a 27% O-Swing is great, his Z-Swing was below avg.
This led to a jump in Called Strikes (18.1 to 21.5%).
So while the discipline looks solid, the expected results are not there. See: Max Muncy or Cavan Biggio.
This led to a jump in Called Strikes (18.1 to 21.5%).
So while the discipline looks solid, the expected results are not there. See: Max Muncy or Cavan Biggio.
So, is this something Moore will improve? Or something to live with?
If you stubbornly wait for your pitch, you will take called strikes. But you will also improve batted ball quality (like he did).
xwOBAcon .359
.416
But there is a flaw in this plan. Pitchers WILL adjust.
If you stubbornly wait for your pitch, you will take called strikes. But you will also improve batted ball quality (like he did).
xwOBAcon .359
.416But there is a flaw in this plan. Pitchers WILL adjust.
2020 splits:
vs Fastball (54%)
.693 SLG
.472 wOBA
vs Breaking (33%)
.214 SLG
.187 xOBA
vs Offspeed (16%)
.316 SLG
.220 wOBA
Those fastballs are going to stop coming as frequently.
And when that happens, Moore will need to make an adjustment of his own.
vs Fastball (54%)
.693 SLG
.472 wOBA
vs Breaking (33%)
.214 SLG
.187 xOBA
vs Offspeed (16%)
.316 SLG
.220 wOBA
Those fastballs are going to stop coming as frequently.
And when that happens, Moore will need to make an adjustment of his own.
Moore will either:
- Be more aggressive (could make batted ball quality suffer)
- Adopt different 2-strike approach (Cut down Ks, help avg, sacrifice power)
- Stay the course (risk pressing once FB dry up, which could jump K%)
Or he could grow as a hitter. (Pre wrist injury)
- Be more aggressive (could make batted ball quality suffer)
- Adopt different 2-strike approach (Cut down Ks, help avg, sacrifice power)
- Stay the course (risk pressing once FB dry up, which could jump K%)
Or he could grow as a hitter. (Pre wrist injury)
But of course, this all hinges on a small sample size being legitimate.
Smart $ would suggest power is legit, & so is the speed.
Tied for 4th in MLB for SB (up 55% to 70.6% success rate). Only question is if SEA (3rd in MLB) will run at the same rate?
Smart $ would suggest power is legit, & so is the speed.
Tied for 4th in MLB for SB (up 55% to 70.6% success rate). Only question is if SEA (3rd in MLB) will run at the same rate?
But the batting avg is the issue, & okaying time is a question.
Shed Long is a superior defender at 2B & had the job to begin 2020. But after failing to make adjustments, lost the job to Moore.
Scott Servais claims both will be given reps in Spring Training, but...
Shed Long is a superior defender at 2B & had the job to begin 2020. But after failing to make adjustments, lost the job to Moore.
Scott Servais claims both will be given reps in Spring Training, but...
He also admitted Moore earned the right to play everyday.
“He is going to play...I’m very comfortable w/ him. I like what he brings to 2B.”
Sounds good to me
Dylan started a game at 7 different defensive positions in 2020, so everyday ABs seem likely even if not at 2B.
“He is going to play...I’m very comfortable w/ him. I like what he brings to 2B.”
Sounds good to me
Dylan started a game at 7 different defensive positions in 2020, so everyday ABs seem likely even if not at 2B.
That brings us back to avg. A .251 xBA backs up the .255 on the stat sheet.
You can point to the minors, where he hit .280 in AAA for MIL, but that was w/ a 14% K rate (which does not seem realistic in MLB).
Which brings us back to the main issue. There is not a lot to go on!
You can point to the minors, where he hit .280 in AAA for MIL, but that was w/ a 14% K rate (which does not seem realistic in MLB).
Which brings us back to the main issue. There is not a lot to go on!
Moore looks like he could be a bizzaro version of C.Biggio w/ less BB
Would that be a bad thing?
In fantasy he is far cheaper & could offer decent counting stats as a 1/2 hitter in SEA.
The problem is risk due to track record, or lack thereof.
Would that be a bad thing?
In fantasy he is far cheaper & could offer decent counting stats as a 1/2 hitter in SEA.
The problem is risk due to track record, or lack thereof.
Recap:
HR/SB seem legit
If pitchers adjust, struggle is expected
Everyday ABs should be there
Will SEA run as often?
Room to grow but w/ a trap door firmly below
Ultimate risk/reward player that has a chance to be a poor mans Starling Marte...or benched.
HR/SB seem legit If pitchers adjust, struggle is expected Everyday ABs should be there Will SEA run as often? Room to grow but w/ a trap door firmly belowUltimate risk/reward player that has a chance to be a poor mans Starling Marte...or benched.
What to expect from Dylan Moore in 2021:
510 AB
.245/.348/.441
21 HR
85 R
62 RBI
26 SB
He is a flawed hitter w/ no track record. But there is room to grow based on what we saw in 2020, but also a path to disaster.
510 AB
.245/.348/.441
21 HR
85 R
62 RBI
26 SB
He is a flawed hitter w/ no track record. But there is room to grow based on what we saw in 2020, but also a path to disaster.
@LookoutLanding @SodoMojoFS @RyanDivish @GregJohnsMLB
There is an entire Dylan Moore thread above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1358738777880092672
There is an entire Dylan Moore thread above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1358738777880092672
