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#THREAD: Busy past week in Russia and its consequences for the relations with the #EU:
- A wave of repressions in #Russia,
- Two trials against @navalny,
- Unsuccessful visit of @JosepBorrellF to #Moscow,
- Rising tensions in the bilateral relations,
@AMO_cz // @MapInfluenceEU
- A wave of repressions in #Russia,
- Two trials against @navalny,
- Unsuccessful visit of @JosepBorrellF to #Moscow,
- Rising tensions in the bilateral relations,
@AMO_cz // @MapInfluenceEU
1/ On 23 and 31 Jan, hundreds of thousands of Russians went to streets to protests against imprisoning #Navalny, omnipresent corruption, #Putin´s repressions and decreasing standard of living. The return of #Navalny served as an accelerator: https://www.ta3.com/clanok/1202182/studio-ta3-p-havlicek-o-tom-ako-sud-poslal-navalneho-za-mreze.html?fbclid=IwAR1tM38HM84BH7M56Dvn_yLShU8VmJ-StTtIO9_Hyo2j5FvuIlXpgzbGmlo
2/ Hundreds are still in jails or detention centres, including #Sakharovo, where conditions are beyond disastrous.
Domestically #Russia is full of pain and grievance. But the opposition now led by @leonidvolkov decided to postpone the future protests: https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/rusko-protesty-navalnyj-zatceni-kreml-putin-sacharovo-demonstrace_2102060714_eku?fbclid=IwAR06SM1__iNpec2QFbVAGwoDW9w2to-1A85Ar1zVLZEdeYgGAG8SYzo1aRE
Domestically #Russia is full of pain and grievance. But the opposition now led by @leonidvolkov decided to postpone the future protests: https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/rusko-protesty-navalnyj-zatceni-kreml-putin-sacharovo-demonstrace_2102060714_eku?fbclid=IwAR06SM1__iNpec2QFbVAGwoDW9w2to-1A85Ar1zVLZEdeYgGAG8SYzo1aRE
3/ @navalny himself went through two trials last week - first on Tuesday when he received 3.5 years of the penal colony during @AnnLinde #OSCE visit to Moscow.
Second during @JosepBorrellF´s trip on Friday - here, the final say is still pending: https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2021/02/hlavny-kritik-putina-navalnyj-ide-do-vazenia-rozhodol-sud/?fbclid=IwAR2Ngb4BJh3817pr74jrEWOC34uj8HyhkJM0_G-x_shCs9BYI2thZFqq0tw
Second during @JosepBorrellF´s trip on Friday - here, the final say is still pending: https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2021/02/hlavny-kritik-putina-navalnyj-ide-do-vazenia-rozhodol-sud/?fbclid=IwAR2Ngb4BJh3817pr74jrEWOC34uj8HyhkJM0_G-x_shCs9BYI2thZFqq0tw
4/ Where #Russia will go domestically is hard to predict at this stage, but #repressions, #isolation and pre-September #electoral tensions are going to stay with us.
The opposition is now trying to mobilise resources to push during the parliamentary vote: https://www.info.cz/eu/sveho-nejvetsiho-kritika-putin-docasne-odklidil-nespokojenost-a-vzdor-rusu-ale-nezmizi-v-co-vyusti-vybusny-mix-okolnosti?fbclid=IwAR3l8G-A6dNJU0JrmV7_IBzCB_QKoenjNxUJ9zwomZpFCUVy6R6O6ZugWBg
The opposition is now trying to mobilise resources to push during the parliamentary vote: https://www.info.cz/eu/sveho-nejvetsiho-kritika-putin-docasne-odklidil-nespokojenost-a-vzdor-rusu-ale-nezmizi-v-co-vyusti-vybusny-mix-okolnosti?fbclid=IwAR3l8G-A6dNJU0JrmV7_IBzCB_QKoenjNxUJ9zwomZpFCUVy6R6O6ZugWBg
5/ All that is having powerful implications for #Russia´s #FP - the country does not, in fact, want to engage, cooperate with partners and concentrates on the domestic agenda.
Hence, @JosepBorrellF visit during Thu-Sat was impossible to achieve too much: https://program.rozhlas.cz/zaznamy#/plus
Hence, @JosepBorrellF visit during Thu-Sat was impossible to achieve too much: https://program.rozhlas.cz/zaznamy#/plus
The expectation from some, including the #civilsociety in both the #EU and #Russia, were quite high: https://euobserver.com/opinion/150783?fbclid=IwAR03N8X2GN9o_MBV2QC8hIq-H9Ed0AVgMRkaT8YLc1Wtiqh4osqPeVzFNo4
But @JosepBorrellF was limited by #Russia´s lack of interest and his mandate and pressure from the #EU where two camps have completely opposing visions.
But @JosepBorrellF was limited by #Russia´s lack of interest and his mandate and pressure from the #EU where two camps have completely opposing visions.
7/ I would not consider the visit "disastrous" as @politico has said: https://www.politico.eu/article/borrell-stands-by-as-lavrov-calls-eu-unreliable-partner/ but it was certainly a big disappointment and slap on the face of the #EU and @eu_eeas - especially for the expulsion of the 3 EU diplomats from #Germany, #Sweden & #Poland.
8/ #Russia planned everything to humiliate @JosepBorrellF and plan everything very carefully, inc. the expulsion about which the #HighReo learned from social media.
Same goes for @navalny who are at the court, which prevented @JosepBorrellF to meet him: https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/92722/my-visit-moscow-and-future-eu-russia-relations_en
Same goes for @navalny who are at the court, which prevented @JosepBorrellF to meet him: https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/92722/my-visit-moscow-and-future-eu-russia-relations_en
9/ At least some of the important things, including on #civilsociety, #independentmedia and @navalny or #Russia´s aggression in #Ukraine and elsewhere were said.
@JosepBorrellF also paid tribute to the assassinated oppositionist #BorisNemtson: https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1358331980279140352
@JosepBorrellF also paid tribute to the assassinated oppositionist #BorisNemtson: https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1358331980279140352
10/ But the overall image and #reflection is negative.
#Russia has chosen its future relations with the #EU, which is important for the #future debates on the #Russia policy, which is to be discussed at the end of Feb at #FAC and later in March at the @EUCouncilPress meeting.
#Russia has chosen its future relations with the #EU, which is important for the #future debates on the #Russia policy, which is to be discussed at the end of Feb at #FAC and later in March at the @EUCouncilPress meeting.
11/ There will be much less manoeuvring space for countries that wanted #selectiveengagement and cooperation with #Russia.
@JosepBorrellF seems to draw his personal conclusions as well when he hinted on future #sanctions and applying #EU #Magnitsky law: https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1358488437641338886
@JosepBorrellF seems to draw his personal conclusions as well when he hinted on future #sanctions and applying #EU #Magnitsky law: https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1358488437641338886
12/ Now, it is important to draw the right conclusions:
a) @JosepBorrellF´s visit has weakened the image of #EU and #West in Russia, but this was planned by #Russia,
b) #Russia does not care and wants to further isolate,,
c) It is important to unite and give a common push back.
a) @JosepBorrellF´s visit has weakened the image of #EU and #West in Russia, but this was planned by #Russia,
b) #Russia does not care and wants to further isolate,,
c) It is important to unite and give a common push back.
13/ Important reflections will be taking place during the whole week in the #EU, including @Europarl_EN, @EU_Commission and @EUCouncilPress.
While the grilling of @JosepBorrellF will be there (and well deserved), it is important to see that this would happen to #Borrell anyway.
While the grilling of @JosepBorrellF will be there (and well deserved), it is important to see that this would happen to #Borrell anyway.
14/ Many call for punishing #Russia for what it has done and how aggressively it has played against #EU. There are some suggestions:
a) #EU should expel more than just 3 diplos as a gesture,
b) #NordStream2 should be pressured and discussed again,
c) Sanctions should be prepared
a) #EU should expel more than just 3 diplos as a gesture,
b) #NordStream2 should be pressured and discussed again,
c) Sanctions should be prepared
15/ While it will be difficult to persuade #Germany, which seems unwilling, to stop the project, cooperation with the #US and #Greens might help to push this through.
Domestic affairs in #Russia, the humiliation of the #EU must not go unpunished: https://www.info.cz/eu/nord-stream-2-jako-klicova-vyzva-pro-evropskou-politiku-vuci-rusku?fbclid=IwAR2guOq9KefPue_7jcVHfzFuQnKAA89AK_0BkgQt6pHUVhSkcFPF5n_N2dw
Domestic affairs in #Russia, the humiliation of the #EU must not go unpunished: https://www.info.cz/eu/nord-stream-2-jako-klicova-vyzva-pro-evropskou-politiku-vuci-rusku?fbclid=IwAR2guOq9KefPue_7jcVHfzFuQnKAA89AK_0BkgQt6pHUVhSkcFPF5n_N2dw
16/ The #EU and #West must prepare a new #strategy on #Kremlin which does not seem to care and will continue its brutality in and outside of its borders.
Supporting in-country actors, including via #visa liberalisation for certain groups, might be a way: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/as-russias-repression-grows-the-west-needs-to-react/
Supporting in-country actors, including via #visa liberalisation for certain groups, might be a way: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/as-russias-repression-grows-the-west-needs-to-react/
17/ Push against #corruption, #illiberalism and in favour of #democratisations / #HR should be the long-term strategy and common approach with the #UnitedStates, which the #EU needs to maximise its #FP in #EasternEurope and elsewhere: https://visegradinsight.eu/the-eu-and-us-must-act-together-in-europes-neighbourhood/
Via @VisegradInsight
Via @VisegradInsight
18/ #END: There are some #strategic choices to be made by the #EU related to its #Russia policy.
The #EU should make the right decisions to finally have a united voice and return to the origins of #5guidningprinciples developed by @FedericaMog in 2016:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=EPRS_BRI(2018)614698
The #EU should make the right decisions to finally have a united voice and return to the origins of #5guidningprinciples developed by @FedericaMog in 2016:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=EPRS_BRI(2018)614698
