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I've compiled the numbers on COVID deaths in the USA for the week--and WOW. They're shocking. I had to triple check them.... @navarp @jkwan_md @deonandan @seanpero @auscandoc @DFisman
The big picture: The whole pandemic. I move population and deaths from Voluntary to Mandatory as orders are introduced. Data is deaths/million. States with mask orders have outperformed states where masks are voluntary since July 4, this week by 20%, and by an average 29%. /2
Data since July 4. Remember, this data UNDERESTIMATES THE VALUE OF MASKS because the states where they are voluntary have many local orders, and of course, people wearing them voluntarily. And look at the size of that gap! /3
And here's where it gets interesting. This compares states with Republican vs Democratic governors. And that gap is getting very big! You can also see the strong relationship btw governor's party and mask orders--ie, listening to experts and willingness to take action. /4
And here's the real shocker. This graph compares states that went for Biden to states that went for Trump, since the election. In a single week, they went from EQUAL to a gap of 26 deaths/million. This was a very bad week to be in a state that voted for Trump! /5
If I had to guess, I'd say that this represents the impact of holiday gatherings. Hypothesis: States that supported Trump have a higher proportion of people who disregarded advice to avoid gathering for the holidays...and now, the grandparents are paying the price. /end
