The latest preprint analysis of the B117 variant has this variant becoming dominant in the US in March. That's similar to my forecasts, though I don't think this analysis has taken into account the competitive factors from P1 & B1351 variants.

Since P1 and B.1.351 reduce the efficacy of the vaccines and B.117 does not, they will introduce significant competitive pressures on B117s dominance over the next few months. This is a very complicated scenario to forecast, but...

The important takeaways are that we must:
(1) Keep up on our guard with social distancing and mask wearing (and all other non-pharmaceutical interventions)
(2) accelerate vaccinations.

If we do that, we can still control this outbreak, even with the VOCs, by the fall.