Read on Twitter
Am optimistic about late spring and summer
But concerned about next couple of months
So let's chat why
B117 – the UK variant
Its here and spreading quickly
Great new analysis by @k_g_andersen et al out today confirms as much
Its a problem
Thread https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1
But concerned about next couple of months
So let's chat why
B117 – the UK variant
Its here and spreading quickly
Great new analysis by @k_g_andersen et al out today confirms as much
Its a problem
Thread https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1
B117 is much more contagious – so it can quickly overwhelm a nation
Great write-up about Andersen piece and broader issues by @carlzimmer in @nytimes today
If you want to understand what this variant can do to a nation, let’s look at some data
2/8 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/health/coronavirus-variant-us-spread.html
Great write-up about Andersen piece and broader issues by @carlzimmer in @nytimes today
If you want to understand what this variant can do to a nation, let’s look at some data
2/8 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/health/coronavirus-variant-us-spread.html
First, let's look at pandemic in two nations:
Ireland (blue)
Germany (red)
Until mid-December, outbreaks had looked similar
Ireland had a spike in October did a lockdown, and got it under control
Germany rising in November, December with modest restrictions in place
3/8
Ireland (blue)
Germany (red)
Until mid-December, outbreaks had looked similar
Ireland had a spike in October did a lockdown, and got it under control
Germany rising in November, December with modest restrictions in place
3/8
In Mid-December, Germany (red) looked worse than Ireland (blue)
But B117 was circulating in Ireland and starting to grow
Not so much in Germany
And what happened next in Ireland was really rough
What you see is a exponential growth
4/8
But B117 was circulating in Ireland and starting to grow
Not so much in Germany
And what happened next in Ireland was really rough
What you see is a exponential growth
4/8
Here are some key dates, case numbers
December 10: 5.8 new cases / 100K
Dec 17: 7.9 new cases / 100K
Dec 24: 16.9 new cases / 100K
Dec 31: 27.3 new cases / 100K
In 3 weeks, number of new cases went up more than 4X
Ireland went into full lockdown end of December
5/8
December 10: 5.8 new cases / 100K
Dec 17: 7.9 new cases / 100K
Dec 24: 16.9 new cases / 100K
Dec 31: 27.3 new cases / 100K
In 3 weeks, number of new cases went up more than 4X
Ireland went into full lockdown end of December
5/8
Cases peaked on 1/9 at 132 new cases / 100K
US has never seen numbers like that
Only the Dakotas had infection rates that high
In comparison, here's US during this time
Our holiday "surge" was small in comparison
6/8
US has never seen numbers like that
Only the Dakotas had infection rates that high
In comparison, here's US during this time
Our holiday "surge" was small in comparison
6/8
One more thing about Germany
Head of their public health institute announced Friday that 6% of their infections are from B117
Germany is in a pretty tight lockdown
So they may see only a modest spike
But US is pretty open
7/9
Head of their public health institute announced Friday that 6% of their infections are from B117
Germany is in a pretty tight lockdown
So they may see only a modest spike
But US is pretty open
7/9
May be 2% of our infections are from B117
But we don’t know because we still aren’t doing enough genomic surveillance
So most public health experts expect a spike from B117
But we can avoid a horrible spike that flattens our hospitals and kills tens of thousands
How?
8/9
But we don’t know because we still aren’t doing enough genomic surveillance
So most public health experts expect a spike from B117
But we can avoid a horrible spike that flattens our hospitals and kills tens of thousands
How?
8/9
We have real tools
Most importantly, we have a federal government that is now actually run by competent people
We need to substantially ramp up genomic surveillance
We need to act very quickly if we see infections starting to inch up
And we have vaccines
9/10
Most importantly, we have a federal government that is now actually run by competent people
We need to substantially ramp up genomic surveillance
We need to act very quickly if we see infections starting to inch up
And we have vaccines
9/10
Our vaccines will work against B117
And they will blunt the effects on high risk people
If we can get them into arms fast enough
Today's analysis shows that B117 will become widespread in the US
But it need not flatten us
We have the tools to beat it
Fin
And they will blunt the effects on high risk people
If we can get them into arms fast enough
Today's analysis shows that B117 will become widespread in the US
But it need not flatten us
We have the tools to beat it
Fin
