1) Includes ‘a very large increase in interest rates’. The empirical overconfidence here is shocking. https://twitter.com/ojblanchard1/status/1358122330329927680

2) If every important empirical macro claim you have made about inflation, output gaps and unemployment has been wrong for three decades, every policy suggestion should start with ‘I know very, very little about this’.

3) @ojblanchard1 needs to start every macro policy recommendation with: “I didn’t see the collapse in global real interest rates over the last two decades coming, & I still don’t understand it”; “ditto the collapse in inflation”; “ditto any ‘trade-off’ between unemployment & CPI”

4) Janet Yellen’s last speech as Fed chair was a lesson in empirical humility. She has wisdom in abundance. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/yellen20170926a.pdf