Liverpool [4th] vs Manchester City [1st]

An analytical preview for the game of the season.

This will be a thread comparing team stats and some key individual players.

Sources will be linked at the end of the thread.

Some terms and shortcuts i'll use;

xG: Expected Goals
AGS: Actual Goals Scored
xG/90: Expected Goals per 90
xGA: Expected Goals Allowed
AGA: Actual Goals Allowed
GA: Goals Allowed
GA/90: Goals Against Per 90
SoTA: Shots On Target Faced

So let's start this off by comparing the squad's xG and xGA and compare it with their actual goals and goals against.

Liverpool;

xG: 41.8
xG/90: 1.90
AGS: 43
xGA: 24.6
AGA: 25
xGA/90: 1.14

Man City:

xG: 39.1
xG: 1.86
AGS: 39
xGA: 14.7
AGA: 13
xGA/90: 0.62

So with the stats above, it shows us that Liverpool are the more clinical team, they've outperformed their xG by 2.8% compared to Man City's 0.0025%, small margins but it shows that Liverpool are more likely to score.

In the Premier League, Liverpool rank #1 in terms of xG compared to Man City's #2.

But it's Man City who stand at the top (#1) in terms of xGA with 14.7 compared to Liverpool who sit at #4.

So with the stats above it, it shows us that Liverpool are the that are most LIKLEY to concede a goal before Man City.

However, with Liverpool missing key defenders that is to be expected.

On average, Man City face a shot on target 1.95 times a game, that's the 2nd lowest in Europe [Atletico De Madrid are #1] and THE lowest in the Premier League.

Liverpool on the other hand face a shot on target 3.27 times a game, almost 2x (1.68x) as much as Man City.

So that shows us that the Liverpool goalkeeper [Adrian, Kelleher or Alisson] is not only likely to conceded a goal but also on average faces more shots on target than the Man City goalkeeper [Ederson].

So this is Liverpool's average position in the last 4 games in all comps against Brighton, West Ham, Spurs and Man United.

Red: Home game.
Blue: Away game.

[Whoscored]

And this is Man City's average position in the last 4 games in all comps against Burnley,

Red: Home game.
Blue: Away game.

[Whoscored]

Pro's and cons for Liverpool.

Pro's;

- creates more chances
- More clinical
- More accurate long balls
- On average has more shots on target

Cons;

- High line can be exposed
- Defenders are likely to be isolate on a 2v3
- Aerial Duels % is one of the worst in the league

Pro's and cons for Man City.

Pro's;

- On average Hold's 24% more possession
- One of the best Aerial Duels % in the League
- Likely to score a header
- More accurate short balls
- Faces less shorts on target on average
- Faces less quality shots on target

Cons;

- LB/LWB leaves a massive space to be exploited
- Average Player Positions risks a Liverpool counter attack
- Long balls are not accurate and often times lead to possession team getting the ball first

The end.

Sources:

https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats
https://fbref.com/en/comps/Big5/Big-5-European-Leagues-Stats
https://www.whoscored.com/ 

My score prediction:

2-1 Man City.

Their defence is far superior and our attack is far superior so this is all about who can hold a lead and i believe Man City are the superior team in that department.

Liverpool do not sit back, Klopp is stubborn and shown that before, our stubbornness and attack minded tactics will fail us.

Although i'd love to be proven wrong.