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1. The Supreme Leader's emphasis on "verified" sanctions relief points to the credibility problem facing Biden.
Iran and the US can likely choreograph a kind of simultaneous re-entry into the JCPOA. But Biden needs to prove he can lift sanctions first. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-nuclear-usa/u-s-must-lift-curbs-before-iran-rejoins-deal-khamenei-cites-final-stance-idUSKBN2A708L
Iran and the US can likely choreograph a kind of simultaneous re-entry into the JCPOA. But Biden needs to prove he can lift sanctions first. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-nuclear-usa/u-s-must-lift-curbs-before-iran-rejoins-deal-khamenei-cites-final-stance-idUSKBN2A708L
2. @SahilV_Shah and I offer three options that would enable Biden to address doubts in Tehran. These options require taking a first step to ease pressure on Iran's economy, thereby opening the door for US-Iran talks on politically sensitive sequencing. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/02/05/biden-nuclear-iran-foreign-policy-466120
3. One thing to highlight is that sequencing was very much part of the negotiations around the JCPOA. But what is new here is Iran's emphasis on "verification" of sanctions relief. This is because of the disappointment of post-JCPOA sanctions relief -- lessons were learned.
4. But it also points to Iranian sensitivities over a key asymmetry in the deal now made clear. The IAEA is an empowered third party working to verify Iranian compliance with its commitments. But Iran has no such third party working to verify the commitments of other parties.
5. This issue is related to institutional shortcomings in sanctions lifting (something myself, @esaravalle, @njtmulder, and @DDolzikova have all written about). We need more work on solutions. If it's in the Supreme Leader's speech, it's a material concern for diplomacy.
6. Jack Lew on sanctions lifting in March 2016:
"If we fail to follow through, we undermine our own credibility and damage our ability to use sanctions to drive policy change."
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/pages/jl0398.aspx
"If we fail to follow through, we undermine our own credibility and damage our ability to use sanctions to drive policy change."
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/pages/jl0398.aspx
7. Some more detailed thoughts on this issue: https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2021/2/7/verification-and-the-credibility-of-sanctions-relief-for-iran
