Trade facts:

1. UK EU trade has declined nearly continually since 2007
2. Leaving the customs union means tariffs will be reduced globally so trade will shift
3. Complex non tariff barriers esp for agriculture will force trade redirection away from the EU

1/
4. The EU is a declining share of the world economy - this is accelerating
5. Food security will mean the UK gov will push trade diversification
6. Geopolitics is bringing together trade, security and technology - UK is looking to the Anglosphere now

2/
7. A lot of trade with the EU is permanently contracting and will be reshored (car parts won't be sent from across the Channel to save £2 a car)
8. Next gen manufacturing tech is going to break up more and more of trade trade anyway

3/
All is all trade with the EU will continue to decline and most of the pain is baked in - so no... there is no going back.

The politics and geopolitics of EU membership have changed. The world of the 21st century is going to be very different to the 20th.

Dry your tears.

4/
You can follow @Danjsalt.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.