What happens next in Myanmar may depend on the answer to a few very different questions. First is whether the protests and civil disobedience campaigns escalate and lead to more widespread arrests and a bloody crackdown. The position of the Buddhist Sangha will be important too.

The second is whether the military administration proves itself at all competent in handling the pandemic ad well as the country's acute economic crisis; there have been interesting early appointments as well as statements on prioritising fiscal and monetary expansion.

The third is what happens between the military and the array of non-State armies and militia, in particular the Northern Alliance and the 30,000 strong United Wa State Army. A new accommodation is possible. At the same time, ceasefires in the south are already unraveling.

The fourth is the international reaction. Though economic ties are limited, US and EU sanctions have the potential to deal a near death blow to the already ailing economy. China's leverage centres on its close ties to several non-State armies as well as economic clout.

The fifth is the political aim of the military administration. A return to the 2008 constitution but this time excluding Aung San Suu Kyi seems possible. An unlikely alternative might be talks with ASSK towards a new pact.

And finally is whether the millions at the bottom of society, migrant workers, refugees & IDPs, many from minority communities,who today eke out the barest of existences, often in brutal and militarised environments: whether they too will have a chance to shape the story to come.