Josh Jacobs Thread

As a rookie, Josh Jacobs rushed for 1150 yards and 7 TDs on an efficient 4.8 ypc behind a mediocre (at best) offensive line. He didn’t get much work in the passing game, only pulling in 20 receptions for 168 yards. 1318 yards in 13 games as a rookie.

For comparisons sake, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1168 yards and 11 TDs at an extremely impressive 5 ypc. He had notably more work in the passing game, pulling in 36 receptions for 299 yards. Taylor totaled 1467 yards, 149 yards more than Jacobs totaled as a rookie.

But Taylor also played in 2 more games than Jacobs and unlike Jacobs, Taylor did not have to play through a broken shoulder for multiple games.

The two backs had an almost identical amount of touches. Jacobs had 262, Taylor 268.

They had remarkably similar rookie years. Jacobs had to fight through injury and a lack luster offensive line. Taylor had 150 more yards, and had the cushier situation.

This year, Jacobs efficiency was down. No way around that. Slipping from 4.8 ypc to 3.9 this year scared a lot of folks. But context is important. Virtually all season, the entire Raiders offensive line was injured. Not one guy. Not two guys. Three and some four.

Does anyone think any running back will maintain their efficiency playing behind 2nd and 3rd stringers? It’s just not going to happen. Look at Zeke this year. Zeke had a career low year, dropping to 4 ypc. But can you expect Zeke to stay at his typical 4.5 level behind backups?

Instead of freaking out over a bad variable that is easily explainable - like a decrease in efficiency due to an injured oline, i’m going to look at variables that are still measurable without the negative influence.

Is my guy still making things happen?

And the answer to that is absolutely yes. Jacobs was 6th in broken tackles and 7th in yards after contact. He also increased his receiving totals by nearly 50%, bringing in 33 receptions for 238 yards.

With literally no line, the 22 year old second year player totaled 1303 yards.

Zeke had 58 receptions in his first two years. Jacobs has had 53 in his first two.

Zeke had 77 in his third year, and has sat around 50-55 since.

With a healthy line, and a Raiders team looking to compete, Jacobs’ role should expand. He’s not far off the Zeke track, and I think a Zeke like 50-60 receptions in his 3rd year is quite probable.

We’ve seen Jacobs is efficient behind even a mediocre healthy line (which has been upgraded since).

To paint a picture of a realistic expectation based on what we’ve already seen let’s take his 4.8 ypc, and chop it down to a Zeke like 4.5.

292 carries (Jacobs 16 game pace this year) at 4.5 ypc is 1460 yards.

If he matches his 35 reception 250 yard performance from this year, Jacobs is topping 1700 yards in his third year.

And that’s being conservative with what he’s already done.

Put to project out to a realistic projection that’s a little beyond what he’s already done how about:

310 carries (18 more than last years 16 game pace) for 4.8 ypc (rookie #) = 1488 yards

55 receptions at 7.5 ypc(closer to his lower efficiency y2 than his higher efficiency y1)

For 422 yards.

That’d make Jacobs 1900 yard back in his third year. 23 years old. Secure role. Goal-line opportunities. Passing opportunities.

Jacobs has incredible power, but he’s also elusive and has incredible vision, especially at the second level.

These comparisons shouldn’t be surprising but they likely are. Jacobs is and has been an incredible back. But he hasn’t been appreciated at all since he entered the league.

Maybe that’s because he’s hidden on the Raiders, who get no coverage.

Maybe it’s because people put too much stock in speed score, and not enough into the fundamentals of the game, like footwork, body positioning, acceleration and timing.

Maybe it’s because he was labeled as a JAG even before he entered the league because of a low workload at Alabama.

Maybe it’s because no one cares about the extremely important fact that playing behind 4 backups is not a recipe for success - yet Jacobs still did.

And Josh Jacobs did succeed. He was the RB8 as a 22 year old second year player.

He stacks up to players like JT and Zeke, especially when taking context into account.

Wherever you have him on your rankings, it’s too low.