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on Dec 21, faced with projections of 15-30,000 new cases daily by Jan 24 and threats of impossible burden on ICUs, Ontario went into moderate lockdown. Whether due to this policy or otherwise, new cases remained under 3000 at Jan 12, declining to 2200 by Jan 24.
2/ nonetheless, on Jan 12, Science Table, Ontario science advisors took time out from worrying about microaggressions at University of Toronto to declare that policy failing. They presented new projections, this time projecting up to 45000 new cases by mid-Feb.
3/ As on Dec 21, they showed extrapolations at daily growth rates of 3%, 5% and 7%, even though there had been negligible increase in daily new cases since Dec 21. On right, I added Dec 21 projections plus 2 days of actuals not shown by Science Table.
4/ Science Table failed to show actuals against forecast of only 3 weeks earlier. Instead, they simply re-initiated exponential growth at Jan 21 at rates that were wildly in excess of anything observed under existing moderate lockdown, projecting 20-45000 daily cases by mid-Feb
5/ intimidated by Science Table members (none of whom missed a paycheck during lockdown), Ontario government ratcheted down economic oppression of small private businesses. Store after store on main artery near my house now stand empty. (Even Starbucks and McDonalds).
6/ where are the taxes going to come from to support the well-fed and well-pensioned public sector so quick to erase the livelihoods, savings and businesses of private people?
7/ needless to say, case levels have declined in Ontario, as they have in northern US states regardless of lockdown, and are far below Science Table's exponential projections. However, little change in policy of economic annihilation worthy of Joe Biden.
