Let's examine why Riddoch is wrong (this time). There are two periods where newly independent countries since 1945 have done exceptionally well.

That is during the collapse of communism In Europe and the collapse of imperial rule in East Asia. Here is why....

1. These countries had hit rock bottom. Famine, civil war, fascism, communism. There old order had been vanquished or discredited. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Iceland, Ireland fit into this group. But this alone isnt enough.....

2. There was a recoil from central control, statism and there was no external actor strong enough to interfere in nation building through coercion or sponsoring clientelism. Neighbours were either powerless, or outright hostile....

3. This is if you like the immediate post fascist wave. The USSR rapidly recovered and began to corrupt neighbouring independence movements. These became effective satellite states, and became dependent on the USSR economically...

4. This is 1946-89 wave. If you went indy here, you didnt do well. Singapore almost fell this way, PM Yew was exceptional in crushing any left wing insurgents. Otherwise you see slew of failed tribal states we see today. They stalled permanently....

5. Post 1989 the Soviets again are retreating. China is still a sleeping dragon. The post-communist phase is underway. It's scrappy, messy, but each nation atate breaks through and goes indy. What happens next is interesting...

6. Estonia, to a lesser extent Latvia and Lithuania kick out their old political order. Complete cold turkey.

They elect young, tech savvy professionals, free of political taint, who did not rely on the state teet for income.
Change in every sense carried a positive premium...

7. In Slovenia and a lesser extent Croatia the old order was ditched. Here violence was required but was limited. Crucially there was near total support for independence. The new countries were united.

In Czechoslovakia a Velvet Divorc again allowed new politics to emerge....

8. Not all Soviet and Yugoslav states went this way.

Where the population is divided conflict erupted. Really nasty conflict. Where the old order held on corruption and embezzlement ensued.

These become warzones or failed states....

9. A few like Romania went off the rails but quicklyu regrouped. Again a united country and a perceived need to move on was needed. We almost lost Romania, and we almost lost Croatia.

Belarus is led by the same miserable leftist as in 1994. Consumed by xenophobia....

10....it has become Venezuela on a cold day. A police state, a client of Putin, where the old regional government, with all its memories and habits, holds on for its own profit and amusement.

Elections fudged, journos mugged, this is the low road we are on now....

We cannot have Riddoch's "Arctic Diversity" no more thn we'll have a Baltic Spring.

This is not where we are. In the last ten years it is clear there is no overwhelming support either for the UK or indy.

It's also clear given the awful state of the ruling party we'd quickly...

...become a whorehouse to Brussels, Beijing or Moscow, depending on who would prop up these z rate councillors.

Riddoch's pillocks will hawk us any new lamp for old but it's a dark future that awaits us. There'll be no Arctic Diversity or Baltic Spring

https://www.thinkscotland.org/thinkculture/articles.html?read_full=12928