Longish threat on Yemen: The million dollar question in Yemen: How to end all of its overlapping wars? 1/X

The US has clear and obvious leverage with Saudi Arabia. It is much less clear what leverage the US has with the Houthis. (I think there is some and I think there are fractures and fissures within the group that can be exploited, but this isn't easy to do). 2/X

Saudi Arabia could withdraw tomorrow and the war in Yemen would continue. In some ways, the war would likely get worse. 3/X

That isn't an argument against ending the Saudi-led war in Yemen. That war absolutely has to stop. It is simply to say: it won't be mission accomplished the day Saudi withdraws. 4/X

Nor is it clear to me that the Houthis would simply bend to whatever Iran says if the US were to pressure the Iranians as part of JCPOA 2.0. 5/X

Iran and the Houthis are allies, and the Houthis are much closer to Iran now than when the war started, but that doesn't mean the Houthis will forego what they see as their own best interest to appease Iran. 6/X

It hasn't received a lot of press, but the Houthis have significantly restructured the government in areas under their control. After killing Saleh in 2017 they were able to take complete and unilateral control in the north. 7/X

I'm not so sure they want to go back to being a part of a unified Yemeni government instead of being the government in the north. From the Houthi perspective: why compromise when you see yourself holding better cards? 8/X

At the moment, international pressure on the Houthis is poorly calibrated. Houthi leadership feels very little of this, be it targeted sanctions or the now revoked FTO designation. 9/X

The Houthi leadership is largely insulated from this pressure. It is the Yemeni civilians living under Houthi rule who are bearing the costs. 10/X

But - and this is a big but - I think more practical individuals within the Houthi leadership realize that the situation could quickly turn against them. What looks like a strong position now might not be so in several months or a year. 11/X

The reason is that the Houthis are virtually landlocked (they hold the port in Hudaydah, but the population of the city is not what the Houthi leadership considers their historic base - largely Sunni as opposed to the Zaydi tribesmen in the highlands). 12/X

The Houthis also control territory that holds roughly 60-70% of Yemen's population, but that territory has very little of the country's natural resources, primarily oil and gas. 13/X

This is likely one of the several (reasons) for the Houthi slow-moving offensive toward Marib. In order to survive long-term in Yemen, the Houthis will need to hold some of Yemen's natural resources and right now they don't. 14/X

But - another big but - the anti-Houthi coalition is riven with infighting and mistrust and largely held together by Saudi pressure and money. Should those disappear the anti-Houthi coalition would fragment and collapse. 15/X

Long story short, decisions by the Biden admin in the last few days have been wise and welcomed, but we're a long, long way from the end of the war in Yemen. 16/X

The war has been going on for years, and the roots stretch deep into Yemeni history. What has lasted six years isn't going to be solved in six months. END

And, of course, somehow I always misspell "thread" as "threat" I don't know what that says about me as a person, but it must say something.