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Lots of people still think that by allowing trans women who transition post-puberty into women's sport, we're going to see an utter takeover of women's sport by trans women.
Lots to say about this.
FIRST, how long will be long enough for you to establish that 'No, it won't'?
Lots to say about this.
FIRST, how long will be long enough for you to establish that 'No, it won't'?
You really do need an answer to this. Because if it's been 30yrs after policies have been in place, you can't keep saying "It hasn't been long enough."
So first, we need an answer: how long do you need?
So first, we need an answer: how long do you need?
Here's the thing, we know your answer: it will never be 'long enough' for you to believe that it's fair for trans girls and women to compete in women's sport.
Let's be honest. Come on.
No amount of time of non-domination by trans women will be enough for you, will it?
Let's be honest. Come on.
No amount of time of non-domination by trans women will be enough for you, will it?
We're about to hit TEN (10) YEARS since the NCAA introduced their trans policy that only required 12mo of testosterone suppression for trans women.
https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/Transgender_Handbook_2011_Final.pdf?#:~:text=A%20trans%20male%20(FTM)%20student,a%20wom%2D%20en's%20team%20without
August 2011.
https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/Transgender_Handbook_2011_Final.pdf?#:~:text=A%20trans%20male%20(FTM)%20student,a%20wom%2D%20en's%20team%20without
August 2011.
Is 10 years enough?
Remember, the average age for 'male' puberty onset is 12, and it takes about 4yrs to complete.
The normal age range for College/University students is 18-22.
And it's not as if trans people were waiting for a policy before they'd START playing a sport.
Remember, the average age for 'male' puberty onset is 12, and it takes about 4yrs to complete.
The normal age range for College/University students is 18-22.
And it's not as if trans people were waiting for a policy before they'd START playing a sport.
What happens is that someone plays a sport pre-transition, and then they transition, and often want to keep playing the same sport.
It's not like some couch potato wasn't engaged in sport, then there's a policy change, and BAM "Let's be an elite athlete now!"
It's not like some couch potato wasn't engaged in sport, then there's a policy change, and BAM "Let's be an elite athlete now!"
So let's grant a false assumption: there were no trans women athletes eligible until Aug 2012.
(It's totally false because there would be transitioned women who already met the policy on day 1 of implementation)
(It's totally false because there would be transitioned women who already met the policy on day 1 of implementation)
How many NCAA championship titles have been won by trans women since 2012?
1
...and it happened in 2019.
1
...and it happened in 2019.
And even then, you can't accurately say that Cece Telfer "dominated" her sport.
She came 1st in the 400m hurdles.
She came 6th in 100m hurdles.
If she truly had an unfair advantage over her competitors, she'd have won both. She did not.
She came 1st in the 400m hurdles.
She came 6th in 100m hurdles.
If she truly had an unfair advantage over her competitors, she'd have won both. She did not.
ALSO, Cece won in NCAA Division II, not Division I.
So she didn't even win in the most elite division of NCAA running.
So she didn't even win in the most elite division of NCAA running.
Here are the 2019 results and records for Division II:
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/track_outdoor_champs_records/2019/D2Women.pdf
Cece's winning time was: 57.53
The Div II RECORD is 55.42 in 2017 by Tia-Adana Belle
Cece's winning time was over 2 full seconds behind the record.
COME ON. That's not "dominating."
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/track_outdoor_champs_records/2019/D2Women.pdf
Cece's winning time was: 57.53
The Div II RECORD is 55.42 in 2017 by Tia-Adana Belle
Cece's winning time was over 2 full seconds behind the record.
COME ON. That's not "dominating."
Here are the 2019 Div I results and records:
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/track_outdoor_champs_records/2019/D1Women.pdf
400m hurdles winner was:
Anna Cockrell in 55.23s
The Div I record is:
Kori Carter in 53.21
Kori's record time is a full FOUR (4) seconds faster than Cece's winning time in Div II!!!
COME ON.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/track_outdoor_champs_records/2019/D1Women.pdf
400m hurdles winner was:
Anna Cockrell in 55.23s
The Div I record is:
Kori Carter in 53.21
Kori's record time is a full FOUR (4) seconds faster than Cece's winning time in Div II!!!
COME ON.
So 2019:
DIV I record: 53.21
DIV I winner: 55.23
DIV II record: 55.42
DIV II winner (Telfer): 57.53
And you want to say that Telfer "dominated" her event, the 400m Hurdles?
By being 2s slower than the Div I winner that year, and 4s slower than the Div I record?
Come. On.
DIV I record: 53.21
DIV I winner: 55.23
DIV II record: 55.42
DIV II winner (Telfer): 57.53
And you want to say that Telfer "dominated" her event, the 400m Hurdles?
By being 2s slower than the Div I winner that year, and 4s slower than the Div I record?
Come. On.
The thing is, it's a very convenient narrative to say that Cece was only in the top 300 or so pre-transition, and happened to win a couple years post-transition.
But she won in Div II, not Div I. And she wasn't anywhere close to the Div I winner, let alone either record.
But she won in Div II, not Div I. And she wasn't anywhere close to the Div I winner, let alone either record.
So can we be honest, please?
I think you're just unhappy that a trans woman WON, and it doesn't actually matter WHAT she won.
Yes, one Div II NCAA Championship in the 8+ years since the NCAA trans policy went into effect.
That's "taking over"?
Surely not.
I think you're just unhappy that a trans woman WON, and it doesn't actually matter WHAT she won.
Yes, one Div II NCAA Championship in the 8+ years since the NCAA trans policy went into effect.
That's "taking over"?
Surely not.
And if you reply, "But it hasn't been enough time to see the wave of trans women taking over women's sport."
I return you to our first question: HOW LONG IS LONG ENOUGH?
You can't plausibly claim that 8+ years isn't enough for NCAA.
I return you to our first question: HOW LONG IS LONG ENOUGH?
You can't plausibly claim that 8+ years isn't enough for NCAA.
Who else ya got for NCAA?
There are 480,000 NCAA athletes EACH YEAR.
https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-college-athletics#:~:text=More%20than%20480%2C000%20compete%20as,the%20professional%20or%20Olympic%20level.
Obviously, many athletes compete for more than one year, so we can't just say 8x480k = LOTS of athletes.
But it's going to be at least double.
There are 480,000 NCAA athletes EACH YEAR.
https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-college-athletics#:~:text=More%20than%20480%2C000%20compete%20as,the%20professional%20or%20Olympic%20level.
Obviously, many athletes compete for more than one year, so we can't just say 8x480k = LOTS of athletes.
But it's going to be at least double.
There are ~36k women track and field athletes in a given year in the NCAA.
Over 8 years, it's VERY conservative to say that that means more than 70,000 women track and field NCAA athletes AFTER the transgender policy went into force.
Over 8 years, it's VERY conservative to say that that means more than 70,000 women track and field NCAA athletes AFTER the transgender policy went into force.
So out of OVER 70,000 NCAA women track and field, you can only point to ONE Div II gold medal (that was still almost 4% slower than the Div II record)?
That's it?!
You want us to worry about ONE Div II gold medal in over 8 years and 70,000 women athletes?!!!?
That's it?!
You want us to worry about ONE Div II gold medal in over 8 years and 70,000 women athletes?!!!?
Oh but what about that cross country Div I trans woman!!
You know, the one that won a Div I competition!
Who was that, again?
June Eastwood.
She came 60th at the NCAA Championship that year (2019):
https://www.tfrrs.org/athletes/7391484/Montana/June_Eastwood.html
You know, the one that won a Div I competition!
Who was that, again?
June Eastwood.
She came 60th at the NCAA Championship that year (2019):
https://www.tfrrs.org/athletes/7391484/Montana/June_Eastwood.html
So the only NCAA trans women athletes you can point to is a single Div II championship, and 60th in a Div I championship?
8 years (2019) after the NCAA trans policy went into effect?
You can't be serious.
You aren't serious.
8 years (2019) after the NCAA trans policy went into effect?
You can't be serious.
You aren't serious.
Let's be clear, though. You're asking trans people and our allies to prove a negative: to prove that there's no unfair competitive advantage for trans women.
But you're the ones with the burden of proof.
Here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/12QQ9lo8K7vs6lmMiP9CoXBDVRdFHCIWLWf1UHCP0oBY/edit?usp=sharing
But you're the ones with the burden of proof.
Here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/12QQ9lo8K7vs6lmMiP9CoXBDVRdFHCIWLWf1UHCP0oBY/edit?usp=sharing
It's CONVENIENT for an ideology--that it's unfair for trans women to compete in women's sport; that trans women will 'take over' women's sport--to point to single cases.
But even the SINGLE CASES you point to don't even support your point!
Facts, NOT fear.
But even the SINGLE CASES you point to don't even support your point!
Facts, NOT fear.
I can do this ALL DAY LONG with every single example of a trans woman succeeding in sport.
It's unfair I can't pin two threads :(
Well here's a link to my other thread about the lack of relationship between unaltered endogenous testosterone and performance: https://twitter.com/SportIsARight/status/1357723759910805505
