Today's Ohio COVID update is up! Fantastic day for currently hospitalized - we're almost below 2,000.

For those wondering if I'm seeing the vaccine effect in the data, the answer is not yet. I'm not saying the vaccine isn't having an effect, just that it's hard to explicitly say the vaccine is the driver. Most of our decline is likely a combination of seasonality & exposure...

This is a chart I'm watching closely. It shows new hosps by admit date for this wave in the 60-69 group and the 80+ group. The 80+ group began vaccinations earlier and should thus should see an impact the earliest...

Meanwhile, vaccinations haven't started in the 60-69 group for the general population. As time goes on, I'd expect to see a sizable gap form between the 60-69 group and 80+ group. It's probably going to take a couple weeks for it to show up due to data lag...

I'll also be looking at cases for those two groups as an indicator as well...

I showed this chart yesterday, but I want to highlight some additional observations. The chart shows cases per 100K by age group for this wave...

My biggest observations is that case rates are a lot lower in 0-19, likely reflecting lower transmissibility and milder cases (mild cases not getting identified / tested)...

The other major conclusion I have is that those in their 60s & 70s have done a better job isolating, particularly at the wave's peak...

They understand that risk is higher by age & act accordingly. In addition, many are likely retired and thus it's easier to avoid contact with the outside world...

Unfortunately, the 80+ group has seen similar case rates to those age 20-59. I'd hypothesize that a higher % of that population lives in NHs & with their children. This likely makes it harder for them to isolate and avoid the disease...

That's it for today! Sunday can go either way for the hospital count (increase or decline) and Mon. & Tues. are always the worst days for D/D change. I expect us to fall below 2,000 currently hospitalized sometime Wed. - Fri. I also expect the curfew to be lifted on Thurs.