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Ruben Dias vs Virgil Van Dijk. Facts vs Narratives. A (long) THREAD. Retweets appreciated #mcfc
1) - When Liverpool broke the world transfer record for a defender, to sign VVD, eyebrows were perhaps raised about the fee for the player, but not about the necessity of Liverpool signing him. After all, this was a Liverpool side who had supposedly been a defensive shambles...
2)... having recently shipped 5 goals at Man City and 4 goals at Wembley vs Tottenham. Although the fee was incredibly steep, VVD was the man to finally give Liverpool the solidity at the back that would enable Salah and Mane to fire them to glory.
3) VVD made his debut in the Merseyside derby and made a dream start to life at Anfield by scoring an 84th minute winner in a 2-1 win over local rivals Everton. However this was followed up with a 3 game winless run, where Liverpool conceded 6 goals.
4) After 10 games for his new club, Liverpool had conceded 9 goals – almost an average of 1 goal per game. Yet, VVD’s start to his Liverpool career prompted headlines like “How VVD has redefined Liverpool’s defence” (Mirror) & “VVD brings collective calm and spirit” (Guardian).
5) Odd, considering Liverpool also, on average, conceded 1 goal per game across the 25 games preceding Van Dijk signing.
Indeed, after 25 games in a Liverpool shirt, Liverpool had conceded 23 goals. Throw in an incorrectly disallowed goal in the 2nd leg of the CL quarter final..
Indeed, after 25 games in a Liverpool shirt, Liverpool had conceded 23 goals. Throw in an incorrectly disallowed goal in the 2nd leg of the CL quarter final..
6) ..against City at the Etihad and you have 24 in 25. Throw in a debatably disallowed goal and the non-award of a stonewall penalty in the 1st leg and you are looking at a statistical decline.
7) So how does Van Dijk’s start at Liverpool compare with that of Ruben Dias’ at City? Well, most will no doubt be aware that City’s defence has recently been watertight, and certainly a far cry from what we saw at the Etihad in the 5-2 reverse to Leicester in September.
8) This very clear and visible improvement is also backed up statistically, with City conceding just 9 (not 10 as has been reported widely – he wasn’t on the pitch when Cheltenham scored in the 3-1 FA Cup victory so can hardly be blamed for the goal) in his first 27 starts.
9) Now, the obvious counter-argument to this comparison is that Dias clearly has better defensive players around him at City than Van Dijk enjoyed at Liverpool in the second half of the 17/18 season, and while this may be true from a reputational and financial point of view...
10) ...it doesn’t really tell the full story. Lest we forget, Laporte is coming off the back of missing almost an entire season and is yet to find anything close to his best form. And at the time of Dias’ arrival, Stones was closer to the door than he was to the pitch.
11) Ederson meanwhile, had also endured a fairly indifferent 18/19 season, so it’s a stretch to say that Dias categorically walked into a defensively sound team. Infact, if you compare City’s defensive record over the 25 games prior to Dias signing...
12 ...the defensive record was almost identical to Liverpool’s pre-Van Dijk record, with City conceding 23 goals (as the graphic shows).
13) This isn’t to say that Virgil Van Dijk hasn’t improved Liverpool defensively. He has been a superb signing, and one I think City probably regret not pursuing with the same determination as Liverpool (although have been happy enough with Laporte).
14) Interestingly though, the defensive improvement linked to Van Dijk’s arrival statistically came with the signing of Allison (again for a world-record fee for a keeper). Liverpool kept clean sheets in Alisson’s first 3 games and by the end of the season...
15) Liverpool finished with the fewest goals conceded in the league and won the Champions League, conceding only 5 goals through the knockout stages.
16) However, at this point, the narrative around Van Dijk had reached hysterical levels and possibly peaked at Anfield in a game against Spurs. Sissoko was running in on goal and had Son in support. Van Dijk positioned himself in between Sissoko, and Sissoko ran in on goal...
17) ... and blazed over. If Sissoko had put the ball in net (as he should), questions would have been asked about Van Dijk’s passiveness in dealing with the situation. However, he blazed over and the narrative reached new limits.
18) Van Dijk would be crowned PFA Player of the Year for his performances, and would later finish second in the Ballon D’or. Given Van Dijk’s impact, you would expect that Liverpool now had someone at the back who could organise the team, regardless of the personnel...
19) ). Afterall, he was regarded as the best defender on the planet and some were even hailing him as the best defender the league had ever seen – I’m looking at you Martin Keown and Vincent Kompany.
20) So with that in mind, it’s difficult to understand what happens to Liverpool’s defence when Alisson is missing. In the 23 games that Alisson has missed since the start of the 19/20 season, Liverpool have kept just 5 clean sheets and conceded an alarming 35 goals.
21) Furthermore, Van Dijk has also played in 19 of these games, and in these 19 games, Liverpool have conceded 33 goals. Of the 7 games played by Van Dijk this season, Liverpool have conceded an alarming 14 goals, albeit 7 of them coming against Villa with Adrian in net.
22) Meanwhile, Liverpool have conceded more than once in only one league game this season when Alisson has played. It’s just impossible to get away from the notion that Liverpool’s improvement is more heavily linked to Alisson than it is to Van Dijk.
23) So where does this leave Dias in the ‘Who is the best defender in the league’ debate? It’s difficult to say. The sample size of Dias’ time at The Etihad is relatively small, but his performances and the statistical result is absolutely staggering.
24) Van Dijk’s injury has robbed us of the chance of being able to assess them both side by side on Sunday, and the after-effects of the injury are yet to seen. The narrative will no doubt still favour Van Dijk, but given the 6 year age gap, the crown may soon be Ruben’s to keep.
Thanks to everyone who shared my Zinchenko thread last week. I would greatly appreciate any retweets on this thread too. @SamLee @StevenMcinerney @SteTudor123 @city_rabin @cityreport_ @RafaelH117 @9320pod @NoisyPod @BlueMoonPodcast @howiehok3434 @CityXtraPod @DavidMooney
