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A quick thread on being a suicidologist, and the absolutely humble knowledge that we can't predict anything yet with all the expertise, computing power, and variables in the world:
"Follow the data, do not get ahead of it."
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"Follow the data, do not get ahead of it."
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When the pandemic started, many of the interviewed experts only had 2018 data showing that rates of suicide were increasing. They used that information in March 2020 and April 2020 to say "it was increasing before and it will get worse now"
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Meanwhile the actual statistics for 2019 came out around December and guess what, 2019s rate had fallen. So every expert, opining on TV, online, print, even in scientific articles, didn't know that one of the foundations for their argument fall away.
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A real expert in suicide (there are some) will tell you flat out "I don't even know what happened in 2019 and we aren't very good at predicting figure suicide rates."
I know that's not headline grabbing, but it's true.
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I know that's not headline grabbing, but it's true.
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Suicide rates change due to a host of factors that our expert brains have not yet understood. We do not have a model that even comes close to predicting suicide.
So experts, be humble, and when you as a physician are asked about suicide in the future, use the right answer:
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So experts, be humble, and when you as a physician are asked about suicide in the future, use the right answer:
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"I don't know what will happen in the future, but I know that if we work now to reduce risk factors and boost protective factors we can make a difference."
Follow the data, do not get ahead of it.
Follow the data, do not get ahead of it.