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Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review
* Lots of talk about schools, but...
* What level of risk do we think is acceptable?
* Cases continue to drop
* But we're still at "Highest risk of transmission in schools" according to CDC
* And 117 deaths this wk = deadliest wk yet
1/
Covid Wk-In-Review
* Lots of talk about schools, but...
* What level of risk do we think is acceptable?
* Cases continue to drop
* But we're still at "Highest risk of transmission in schools" according to CDC
* And 117 deaths this wk = deadliest wk yet
1/
I want to talk about schools, but I know some ppl just want to see the data, so I'll start there.
Here are deaths.
The 117 deaths reported this wk was the most of any wk in the entire local pandemic.
I don't know, but I'd guess these ppl were infected over the holidays.
2/
Here are deaths.
The 117 deaths reported this wk was the most of any wk in the entire local pandemic.
I don't know, but I'd guess these ppl were infected over the holidays.
2/
Cases continue to fall.
And as you can see, reported cases are tracking pretty closely with actual cases (by date of testing), with a small lag we expect from processing.
This is incredible news.
But our numbers were so high that we've still got a ways to go.
3/
And as you can see, reported cases are tracking pretty closely with actual cases (by date of testing), with a small lag we expect from processing.
This is incredible news.
But our numbers were so high that we've still got a ways to go.
3/
Cases Vs Tests
1wk, -18% vs -9%
2wks, -28% vs -9%
4wks, -53% vs -18%
8wks, -46% vs -29%
12wks, -24% vs -21%
since our low, wk of Sept27-Oct3
+158% vs +27%
The great news is that cases continue to drop and drop sharply.
The bad news is that we continue to not test enough.
4/
1wk, -18% vs -9%
2wks, -28% vs -9%
4wks, -53% vs -18%
8wks, -46% vs -29%
12wks, -24% vs -21%
since our low, wk of Sept27-Oct3
+158% vs +27%
The great news is that cases continue to drop and drop sharply.
The bad news is that we continue to not test enough.
4/
Even though testing is down, cases are down more. And as a result, our positivity rate continues to drop.
At 9.1% this wk, we fell below 10% for the first time in 13wks.
This is fantastic. But it's still a long way from the 5% bar we need to get below to suppress the virus.
5/
At 9.1% this wk, we fell below 10% for the first time in 13wks.
This is fantastic. But it's still a long way from the 5% bar we need to get below to suppress the virus.
5/
Here's our case rate.
We're down to 31.3 avg daily cases per 100,000 ppl. That's way down from where we were.
But we need to get below 10 per 100k.
And Harvard's Global Health Institute says stay-at-home orders are necessary at 25 per 100k. (We're still at 31 per 100k!)
6/
We're down to 31.3 avg daily cases per 100,000 ppl. That's way down from where we were.
But we need to get below 10 per 100k.
And Harvard's Global Health Institute says stay-at-home orders are necessary at 25 per 100k. (We're still at 31 per 100k!)
6/
My $0.02 worth...
* We need to step back and see the big picture
* Yes, cases are way down
* But they are still dangerously high
* It just doesn't feel that way bc how can it still be dangerous when we cut cases by half in the past month?
* That says more about then than now
7/
* We need to step back and see the big picture
* Yes, cases are way down
* But they are still dangerously high
* It just doesn't feel that way bc how can it still be dangerous when we cut cases by half in the past month?
* That says more about then than now
7/
My $0.02, cont...
* We need some perspective
* Compared to the wk of Jan3, cases are -53%
* But cases are +158% since the wk of Sept27
* There were 796 total cases (114/day) that wk, 5.4%+
* This wk, we had 2051 total cases (293/day), 9.1%+
* In sum: It's still not safe
8/
* We need some perspective
* Compared to the wk of Jan3, cases are -53%
* But cases are +158% since the wk of Sept27
* There were 796 total cases (114/day) that wk, 5.4%+
* This wk, we had 2051 total cases (293/day), 9.1%+
* In sum: It's still not safe
8/
Schools.
In the op-ed I published in @dailymemphian in July, I said we needed to define safe.
"The conversation we need to have is around what levels of COVID-19 in the community will allow for a safe reopening of schools."
This is still needed.
https://dailymemphian.com/section/opinion/article/15774/opinion-when-will-schools-be-safe-to-reopen
9/
In the op-ed I published in @dailymemphian in July, I said we needed to define safe.
"The conversation we need to have is around what levels of COVID-19 in the community will allow for a safe reopening of schools."
This is still needed.
https://dailymemphian.com/section/opinion/article/15774/opinion-when-will-schools-be-safe-to-reopen
9/
In the current debate on schools, we're just talking past one another bc we aren't grounding the conversation on any shared definitions or metrics.
So let's use the CDC's risk levels.
You get to have an opinion, but you have to cite evidence from the CDC indicators here.
10/
So let's use the CDC's risk levels.
You get to have an opinion, but you have to cite evidence from the CDC indicators here.
10/
And as an aside, students as early as 2nd or 3rd grade are learning how to cite evidence to justify their claims.
Complain about Common Core all you want, but that didn't happen in the pre-CCSS days until maybe high school.
We'd all do better to learn to argue this way.
11/
Complain about Common Core all you want, but that didn't happen in the pre-CCSS days until maybe high school.
We'd all do better to learn to argue this way.
11/
Seriously, 10yrs ago, the 8th grade writing test consisted of a prompt. You gave your opinion, you gave reasons, but there was no text.
Now, you have a text, maybe 2. And you have to engage with the text(s).
And know that kids are still learning this virtually.
12/
Now, you have a text, maybe 2. And you have to engage with the text(s).
And know that kids are still learning this virtually.
12/
Okay, back to school reopening...
The first thing to notice is that the CDC does not tell us when to open schools.
It's their job to define the risk. But it's a political decision to decide what level of risk we should accept.
13/
The first thing to notice is that the CDC does not tell us when to open schools.
It's their job to define the risk. But it's a political decision to decide what level of risk we should accept.
13/
The 2 main indicators here are case rate & positivity rate, both over 14 days.
Our 14-day case rate: 486 cases per 100k ppl.
Our 14-day positivity rate: 9.6%.
Per CDC, this means our case rate is way in the red. And our positivity rate just barely fell into the orange.
14/
Our 14-day case rate: 486 cases per 100k ppl.
Our 14-day positivity rate: 9.6%.
Per CDC, this means our case rate is way in the red. And our positivity rate just barely fell into the orange.
14/
Let me restate that...
According to CDC, our case levels are more than twice the threshold for having the "Highest risk of transmission in schools."
And for positivity rate, we just dropped into the "Higher risk of transmission" level, by mere demical points.
15/
According to CDC, our case levels are more than twice the threshold for having the "Highest risk of transmission in schools."
And for positivity rate, we just dropped into the "Higher risk of transmission" level, by mere demical points.
15/
Anyone who thinks we should open schools needs to make the case publicly for why we should accept what CDC calls the "Highest risk of transmission in schools."
And they have to use those words. Otherwise, you're just trying to avoid the real issue here.
16/
And they have to use those words. Otherwise, you're just trying to avoid the real issue here.
16/
I'll even provide you a sentence starter. (This is something our teachers provide, even in virtual school, to help kids learn to justify their claims, btw.)
"We should accept what CDC calls the 'Highest risk of transmission in schools' because _____."
Fill in the blank.
17/
"We should accept what CDC calls the 'Highest risk of transmission in schools' because _____."
Fill in the blank.
17/
Until @GovBillLee or @BrianKelsey or whoever else can convincingly explain why we should accept what CDC calls the "Highest risk of transmission in schools," they should stop trying to force @SCSSuptRay to reopen schools.
You have to make your case.
18/
You have to make your case.
18/
Cc: @MicMcKiss @AltheaG40916416 @lovesblessing @KevinWoods @SheleahHarris @ShanteAvant @MiskaClayBibbs @JoyceDorse
(And can y'all share this with Billy?)
19/
(And can y'all share this with Billy?)
19/
And I know some will ask, What about the CDC study that said schools were safe?
1 - That's not what the study said.
2 - And CDC actually released two studies.
3 - Both have "significant limitations."
Read @matt_barnum's piece here:
https://www.chalkbeat.org/2021/2/2/22262837/cdc-studies-school-reopening-wisconsin-covid-safety
20/
1 - That's not what the study said.
2 - And CDC actually released two studies.
3 - Both have "significant limitations."
Read @matt_barnum's piece here:
https://www.chalkbeat.org/2021/2/2/22262837/cdc-studies-school-reopening-wisconsin-covid-safety
20/
While you're here, please sign this petition from @TEA_teachers asking @GovBillLee to prioritize vaccine access for educators.
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/vaccinate-educators-for-safer-school-conditions
21/
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/vaccinate-educators-for-safer-school-conditions
21/
We have 6wks until Spring Break.
If we want to open schools, now is the time to get teachers & other school staff vaccinated.
There are over 10k school employees in Shelby County. It will take 6wks to get them all vaccinated...twice. Esp with 3-4wks b/t the two doses.
22/
If we want to open schools, now is the time to get teachers & other school staff vaccinated.
There are over 10k school employees in Shelby County. It will take 6wks to get them all vaccinated...twice. Esp with 3-4wks b/t the two doses.
22/
If you are pushing for schools to open, and you're blaming schools, your anger is misplaced.
You are right to be mad, but direct your anger in the right direction. And use your voice to force our leaders to create the conditions for a safe reopening of schools.
23/
You are right to be mad, but direct your anger in the right direction. And use your voice to force our leaders to create the conditions for a safe reopening of schools.
23/
Here's the thing: If you were pushing for schools to reopen in Oct, you'd have a point. (And, fwiw, I did go back in-person b/t Fall Break & Thanksgiving.)
But cases are 158% higher than they were then. And the positivity is 68% higher.
24/
But cases are 158% higher than they were then. And the positivity is 68% higher.
24/
If you want schools to reopen, vaccines are our best bet.
Let's all agree to make schools a priority.
And let's announce that in-person learning will resume after Spring Break...but not w/o vaccinations.
Then it's up to us to get teachers vaccinated.
We can do this.
25/25
Let's all agree to make schools a priority.
And let's announce that in-person learning will resume after Spring Break...but not w/o vaccinations.
Then it's up to us to get teachers vaccinated.
We can do this.
25/25
