Theoretically, there is enough supply to vaccinate globally in stages; essential workers and congregate settings first, no matter which country they’re in. Ideally, we’d have pooled our funding and all purchased through COVAX. That way, nobody gets played off each other

Ironically, the time when we most needed global solidarity to fund and share Covid vaccines, was the time trust and leadership needed for it was in shortest supply. We can't underestimate the impact of global relations on the situation we find ourselves in now

Knowing total collective action was a pipe dream, Covax tried to manipulate the system for the better, while changing behaviours and incentives in it. Fine, rich countries (HICs) want bilateral deals. In return, they will fund some R&D and infrastructure, so it’s a decent trade

But Covax will bind HICs in with poor (LMICs) with an incentive scheme to prevent HICs doing so many bilateral deals they use all the supply, while harnessing their capital and purchasing power for LMICs. Everyone wins and we avoid a stupid vaccine war where the poor lose

It was in many ways a genius but uncertain calculation. If all HICs agreed to do bilateral deals for just 80% of the population, we’d have been grand. But it was prisoner’s dilemma. Nobody wants to be the idiot who didn’t secure enough supply then gets annihilated domestically

Once one country started making excessive bilateral deals, they all did. Which undermined the collective purchasing power of Covax as well as hoovering the supply, and leaving pharmaceutical companies making the moral decision on who gets lifesaving vaccines

And it’s so futilely short term and domestically focused. The fact is, if the rest of the world doesn’t vaccinate til 2024 cause HICs had a trade war over weekly delivery schedules, we will see further covid mutations where current vaccines aren’t effective

We already have 4+ mutations in a year. Thankfully, current vaccines seem to work for them. There’s a real risk if we don’t vaccinate equitably, of mutations that don’t respond to current vaccines. We’ll have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on vaccines that no longer work

I know this is hard to explain to citizens, but it’s great your specific mum got a vaccine early, but that’s not good if it leaves other mums out in the cold for two years, the virus mutates and your mum's vaccine now longer protects against new varieties

We jumped straight to the frame that vaccination should be done geographically, with each country in a race to vaccinate its whole population. Covax was trying to ensure the most vulnerable 20% *globally* got vaccinated, then you can all descend into your bilateral trade wars