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An on-chain analysis thread.
This is hindsight work, but it might be useful knowledge for in the future.
In this space filled with larping and deceiving there’s one thing that can’t lie: the blockchain.
#Bitcoin
This is hindsight work, but it might be useful knowledge for in the future.
In this space filled with larping and deceiving there’s one thing that can’t lie: the blockchain.
#Bitcoin
This is the SPOR. It shows whether mostly profits or losses are being moved around.
Recently the SOPR reached extreme “overbought” levels, but we got a complete reset when we crashed from 40k to 30k.
Last time we had a reset like this was at 10k before we did a 4x.
Recently the SOPR reached extreme “overbought” levels, but we got a complete reset when we crashed from 40k to 30k.
Last time we had a reset like this was at 10k before we did a 4x.
So how come we had such a big correction in the first place?
Profit taking, but more importantly shakeouts are inevitable in bull markets.
When too many people are booking profits on paper, things get dangerous. This danger was visible on the SOPR for example.
Profit taking, but more importantly shakeouts are inevitable in bull markets.
When too many people are booking profits on paper, things get dangerous. This danger was visible on the SOPR for example.
As you can see on this chart, hodler whales started moving a lot of coins just before we reached the top.
Why would people who’ve been hodling for a long time suddenly move coins in bulk as price is skyrocketing?
…
You know why.
Why would people who’ve been hodling for a long time suddenly move coins in bulk as price is skyrocketing?
…
You know why.
Another sign.
The in/outflow dynamic clearly changed. We went from accumulation mode to distribution mode once we reached 40k+.
Flows are more nuanced than this, but generally speaking we can reasonably assume that:
outflow = good
inflow = bad
The in/outflow dynamic clearly changed. We went from accumulation mode to distribution mode once we reached 40k+.
Flows are more nuanced than this, but generally speaking we can reasonably assume that:
outflow = good
inflow = bad
Since the end of January - beginning of February this dynamic shifted once more.
Spot reserves are getting depleted again, outflows are greater than inflows again.
Accumulation mode has been turned back on. Shakeout successful.
Spot reserves are getting depleted again, outflows are greater than inflows again.
Accumulation mode has been turned back on. Shakeout successful.
So about those shakeouts…
Most people think about this the wrong way. It’s NOT about how much percent price drops.
That % price change is completely irrelevant. What matters is how many people get shaken out and for how much. So let’s look at that data.
Most people think about this the wrong way. It’s NOT about how much percent price drops.
That % price change is completely irrelevant. What matters is how many people get shaken out and for how much. So let’s look at that data.
This is MPL. It shows people cashing out for a loss or for profit.
We recently reached moving losses that were greater than during the March 2020 black swan event!
This is absolute madness. Record high levels of panic selling.
We recently reached moving losses that were greater than during the March 2020 black swan event!
This is absolute madness. Record high levels of panic selling.
You can also see it in liquidations.
Since we started trading around 40k we’ve had multiple days of 1B+ liquidations. Mostly longs, which is normal in a bull market, but that’s good it helps with the shakeout.
It’s been a bloodbath.
Since we started trading around 40k we’ve had multiple days of 1B+ liquidations. Mostly longs, which is normal in a bull market, but that’s good it helps with the shakeout.
It’s been a bloodbath.
So that’s the only thing that matters: people actually getting shaken out, regardless of % price moves.
Sometimes it takes a lot, sometimes it doesn’t.
And oh boy there has been some serious shaking. This time it didn’t take that much.
/end
Sometimes it takes a lot, sometimes it doesn’t.
And oh boy there has been some serious shaking. This time it didn’t take that much.
/end
