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$NNOX -- thought I'd put together a refresher on:
- what the company is trying to accomplish
- how it's planning to progress
- where it is today
- all it has left to prove
Shout out to @TerraPharma for editing!
A thread!
- what the company is trying to accomplish
- how it's planning to progress
- where it is today
- all it has left to prove
Shout out to @TerraPharma for editing!
A thread!
Value prop (1/4) -- X-ray tube
- costs $100 @ scale vs. $150K for legacy
- its cold cathode tech greatly reduces heat damage & extends lifetime
- 70-90% smaller vs. legacy tube -- reduces weight & enables multi-source units for 3D imaging (broader applications vs. legacy X-ray)
- costs $100 @ scale vs. $150K for legacy
- its cold cathode tech greatly reduces heat damage & extends lifetime
- 70-90% smaller vs. legacy tube -- reduces weight & enables multi-source units for 3D imaging (broader applications vs. legacy X-ray)
$NNOX value prop (2/4) -- better imaging
Multiple X-ray sources (up to 11) allows for
- more angles
- more tests
Digital approach enables
- clearer imaging
- less unnecessary radiation exposure -- comparatively limited Ma & KvP
(ARC image on the left)
Multiple X-ray sources (up to 11) allows for
- more angles
- more tests
Digital approach enables
- clearer imaging
- less unnecessary radiation exposure -- comparatively limited Ma & KvP
(ARC image on the left)
Quick note on buzzwords:
- Ma = brightness
- KvP = speed of electron emission
- both are positively correlated w/radiation exposure
- specifically: KvP of 40 & Ma of 1.5 for $NNOX vs. typical levels of 50-60 & 3-5 respectively
- Ma = brightness
- KvP = speed of electron emission
- both are positively correlated w/radiation exposure
- specifically: KvP of 40 & Ma of 1.5 for $NNOX vs. typical levels of 50-60 & 3-5 respectively
$NNOX value prop (3/4) -- broader access
All in cost of $15k/unit enables pay/scan model.
Units distributed for free.
W/radiology not affordable to 2/3 of
this is big.
$NNOX's software/AI partners enable assistance w/diagnosis, remote care, organizing patient history etc.
All in cost of $15k/unit enables pay/scan model.
Units distributed for free.
W/radiology not affordable to 2/3 of
this is big.$NNOX's software/AI partners enable assistance w/diagnosis, remote care, organizing patient history etc.
Value prop (4/4) -- optionality
Source uses per $NNOX
- X-ray
- Fluoroscopy
- Angiography
- Mammography
- Veterinary
- Security
- Manufacturing (Quality control per SK)
& (pending multi-source clearance) uses in
- CT
- Some MRI test mimicking
Need single source clearance 1st!
Source uses per $NNOX
- X-ray
- Fluoroscopy
- Angiography
- Mammography
- Veterinary
- Security
- Manufacturing (Quality control per SK)
& (pending multi-source clearance) uses in
- CT
- Some MRI test mimicking
Need single source clearance 1st!
How does it work? (1/2)
X-ray source powered by silicon semiconductor (chip)
- full name: digital microelectromechanical system chip cold-cathode -- MEMs chip
- 100M Molybdenum nano-cones capable of digital & precise electron emission
- more control, rapid switching, less waste
X-ray source powered by silicon semiconductor (chip)
- full name: digital microelectromechanical system chip cold-cathode -- MEMs chip
- 100M Molybdenum nano-cones capable of digital & precise electron emission
- more control, rapid switching, less waste
How does it work? (2/2)
The $NNOX source replaces thermionic filament need in traditional tubes used to emit electrons.
What the heck does this mean?
No need for extreme heat & subsequent cooling so again:
- less power
- more durable
- far smaller & cheaper machine
The $NNOX source replaces thermionic filament need in traditional tubes used to emit electrons.
What the heck does this mean?
No need for extreme heat & subsequent cooling so again:
- less power
- more durable
- far smaller & cheaper machine
Digital X-Ray Competition (1/2)
Several other digital cold-cathode companies in the industry.
All use carbon nano tube (CNT) base for X-ray sources while Nanox uses the MEMs base we touched on.
How do these two methods compare?
Several other digital cold-cathode companies in the industry.
All use carbon nano tube (CNT) base for X-ray sources while Nanox uses the MEMs base we touched on.
How do these two methods compare?
Digital X-Ray Competition (2/2) -- CNT vs. MEMs
CNT is
- less stable
- prone to heat damage (less durable)
No viable, long-term commercial solution among CNT comp after âsignificant investment.â
$NNOX Molybdenum-cones proven more suitable for scale vs. carbon-tubes.
CNT is
- less stable
- prone to heat damage (less durable)
No viable, long-term commercial solution among CNT comp after âsignificant investment.â
$NNOX Molybdenum-cones proven more suitable for scale vs. carbon-tubes.
FDA clearance approach
Aims for single-source clearance 1st (proof of concept).
Then multi-source (more dynamic).
Will soon resubmit single source app.
Will resubmit multi-source app in 2021.
Hopes to deploy 1000 units Q1 2022 & 15K by 2025.
speaking of clearance...
Aims for single-source clearance 1st (proof of concept).
Then multi-source (more dynamic).
Will soon resubmit single source app.
Will resubmit multi-source app in 2021.
Hopes to deploy 1000 units Q1 2022 & 15K by 2025.
speaking of clearance...
in the room (1/2)Last year, $NNOX received a deficiency letter on its single source app.
Last week it filed a 6k informing investors of another deficiency letter.
Issues included needing:
- more support for Arc uses
- more comparability of Arc to legacy devices
in the room (2/2)No clearance severely diminishes the IP's value.
Would then be for non-medical uses only.
I used 2nd letter as a cue to take profit on 44% of my position. $NNOX is now 1.5% of my holdings.Regardless of mgmt's confidence, no guarantee it's cleared.
Scale approach (1/2) -- Distribution
- building 100 units for a dry run
- first to urgent care centers, private clinic chains, outpatient clinics, âretail locationsâ before attempting to disrupt hospital system
- building 100 units for a dry run
- first to urgent care centers, private clinic chains, outpatient clinics, âretail locationsâ before attempting to disrupt hospital system
Scale approach (2/2) -- Open source
- $NNOX will not be aiming to displace $GE or other radiology incumbents
- tube/source IP available to anyone for licensing fees
- philosophy: sharing is caring... & lucrative
Leadership hints at where these licensing deals could occur
- $NNOX will not be aiming to displace $GE or other radiology incumbents
- tube/source IP available to anyone for licensing fees
- philosophy: sharing is caring... & lucrative
Leadership hints at where these licensing deals could occur
Leadership (1/4) -- Advisory board
Morry Blumenfeld
- $GE higher-up in medical systems
Ruth Atherton
- General Counsel Gates Foundation
Michael Jackman
- Health Group COO @ $LDOS
Tom Dekle
- Client Exec @ $IBM
Morry Blumenfeld
- $GE higher-up in medical systems
Ruth Atherton
- General Counsel Gates Foundation
Michael Jackman
- Health Group COO @ $LDOS
Tom Dekle
- Client Exec @ $IBM
Leadership (2/4) -- the board:
Onn Fenig
- formerly w/ $CSCO & Siemens in senior leadership roles
Floyd A. Katske
- former President of California Urological Association
Onn Fenig
- formerly w/ $CSCO & Siemens in senior leadership roles
Floyd A. Katske
- former President of California Urological Association
Leadership (3/4) -- Management
Ran Poliakine -- CEO & Board Chairman
- âFounder of the wireless charging industryâ (Powermat)
Yoel Raab -- CTO (outgoing soon)
- Former executive w/ $INTC
Itzhak Maayan -- CFO
- Formerly in financial leadership roles w/ $CSCO & Perrigo
Ran Poliakine -- CEO & Board Chairman
- âFounder of the wireless charging industryâ (Powermat)
Yoel Raab -- CTO (outgoing soon)
- Former executive w/ $INTC
Itzhak Maayan -- CFO
- Formerly in financial leadership roles w/ $CSCO & Perrigo
Leadership (4/4) -- Encouraging hires
$NNOX recently hired 3 executives to âsupport long term growthâ
Sounds like a confident company.
Outgoing CTO Yoel Raab staying with the company in a lesser role.
Bios of the 3 new hires in the link below: https://nano-ximaging.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nanox-announces-three-key-senior-level-hires-support-long-term
$NNOX recently hired 3 executives to âsupport long term growthâ
Sounds like a confident company.
Outgoing CTO Yoel Raab staying with the company in a lesser role.
Bios of the 3 new hires in the link below: https://nano-ximaging.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nanox-announces-three-key-senior-level-hires-support-long-term
3 key partners
$SKM
- 2 investments in $NNOX for $25M
- Nanox-related hires for chips/AI/Cloud
- will place 2.5K units if cleared
- partner on new Korean subsidiary/factory
$FUJIY
- invested
- mammography OEM customer
Foxconn
- invested
- main manufacturing partner
$SKM
- 2 investments in $NNOX for $25M
- Nanox-related hires for chips/AI/Cloud
- will place 2.5K units if cleared
- partner on new Korean subsidiary/factory
$FUJIY
- invested
- mammography OEM customer
Foxconn
- invested
- main manufacturing partner
Math if cleared (1/2)
$NNOX expects:
- to charge $40/scan
- to collect $14/scan in revenue after partners paid
- revenue to be in âmostly profitâ
$NNOX expects:
- to charge $40/scan
- to collect $14/scan in revenue after partners paid
- revenue to be in âmostly profitâ
Math if cleared (2/2)
Current contracts & collaborations =
- 10,650 units
- MIN 7 scans/day/unit based on contracts
Current deals = MIN $380M in revs
Expect closer to 20 scans/day/unit = $1.09B in revs
Global average for scans/X-ray unit/day is 60.
20 is pessimistic.
Current contracts & collaborations =
- 10,650 units
- MIN 7 scans/day/unit based on contracts
Current deals = MIN $380M in revs
Expect closer to 20 scans/day/unit = $1.09B in revs
Global average for scans/X-ray unit/day is 60.
20 is pessimistic.
More math
Assuming
- most pessimistic scan/day outcome
- most pessimistic take-away from Ranâs reiterated âmostly in profitsâ comments (so 50% profit)
- unit cost of $15K
We get a:
- 306 day profit payback period/unit.
- 153 day revenue payback period/unit.
Assuming
- most pessimistic scan/day outcome
- most pessimistic take-away from Ranâs reiterated âmostly in profitsâ comments (so 50% profit)
- unit cost of $15K
We get a:
- 306 day profit payback period/unit.
- 153 day revenue payback period/unit.
Promising future (only if cleared)
âIn negotiations withâ
- India
- Canada
- The UK
& many more
Also have not begun licensing deals.
âFlood of interestâ in $NNOX's arc machine post RSNA according to Ran.
I am long $NNOX.
âIn negotiations withâ
- India
- Canada
- The UK
& many more
Also have not begun licensing deals.
âFlood of interestâ in $NNOX's arc machine post RSNA according to Ran.
I am long $NNOX.
Sources:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795251/000114036120017084/nt10006151x8_f1.htm
https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/healthcare21/sessions/36567-nano-x-vision/webcast?gpu_only=true&kiosk=true
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/22/exclusive-interview-the-motley-fool-sits-down-with/
https://investors.nanox.vision/static-files/5d6eab8b-1935-419d-92af-f4bee9796c47
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795251/000114036120017084/nt10006151x8_f1.htm
https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/healthcare21/sessions/36567-nano-x-vision/webcast?gpu_only=true&kiosk=true
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/22/exclusive-interview-the-motley-fool-sits-down-with/
https://investors.nanox.vision/static-files/5d6eab8b-1935-419d-92af-f4bee9796c47
Oops I tagged the wrong terrapharma in the first tweet.
@TerraPharma1 helped edit on this one!
Fantastic resource & an even more fantastic follow.
@TerraPharma1 helped edit on this one!
Fantastic resource & an even more fantastic follow.
