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1. [THREAD] The changes on US Yemen policy keep coming at us fast. Essentially a forgotten war, Yemen is now a Biden foreign policy priority, at least in these early days. This decision to now reverse the Houthi FTO designation is a mistake. Here's why: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-yemen-rebels-terrorist-list/2021/02/05/e65e55c8-5b40-11eb-aaad-93988621dd28_story.html
2. Pompeo jammed the Biden administration with the Jan 19th FTO designation of the Houthis, at the behest of the Saudis. I was absolutely opposed to Pompeo’s designation because of the immense humanitarian and economic consequences for the Yemen people.
3. Biden’s immediate 30 day pause was smart, it gave the the interagency time to review. The Biden team made other smart moves as well - Barbara Leaf to the NSC and Tim Lenderking as the envoy. All good.
4. Biden also rescinded offensive arms sales to Saudi; this decision reflects the will of the American people, Congress, and fulfills a campaign promise. America does not want to be actively engaged in the Yemen war. All good.
5. The Houthis are substantially responsible for the humanitarian crisis in the north of Yemen and are the sole party that can change the conditions on the ground for the people immediately.
6. They can simply open access for humanitarian supplies and workers to serve the most vulnerable. They have refused. In short, the Houthis are bad actors.
7. Below is what the Biden team got wrong with this FTO rescission.
8. According to reports, Blinken is rescinding the FTO designation unilaterally and, apparently, in full before the Feb 26th deadline. If this is true and there are no back channel negotiations, the Houthis will perceive this rescission as American weakness.
9. From the Houthi perspective, they didn’t have to negotiate to win a major American concession. The Houthis thus believe they won the first round of negotiations, without dialogue, meeting, or any concession.
10. Houthi leadership may in fact now feel emboldened to consolidate power in their area of control and to challenge the Hadi government in adjacent territories, particularly to the east.
11. The original FTO designation was a grave mistake - but it, and the Biden pause, is now the status quo. Here are a three possibilities going forward:
12. Option A: Keep the pause in place through May 3, the congressionally mandated date for a legally required administration report on Yemen policy.
13. This longer pause keeps the Houthis on notice but allows trade and humanitarian assistance to flow through the banking system predictably for the immediate future.
14. Option B: Trade the FTO rescission for Houthi concrete cooperation to tow, decommission, and de-risk the FSO Safer oil tanker which is at imminent risk of a massive oil leak (4 times the Exxon Valdez) and unimpeded humanitarian access for the most vulnerable.
15. Option C: Tailor the FTO designation - or related sanctions- directly to Houthi leadership and the senior and upper middle ranks so the decision makers bear costs but not millions of civilians.
16. Additionally, while negotiating with the Houthis, use this time to get results from the Hadi government and the Saudis to blunt war profiteering and cross battle line corruption that accelerates conflict.
17. Regarding the Hadi Government: Use these three options as an opportunity to audit the Central Bank, assess current hard currency reserves, provide immediate technical assistance to the Central Bank so it can function transparently for the good of the economy.
18. Additionally, the Hadi government’s Ministry of Finance needs a transparent budget with current accounting for revenue and expenses. My understanding is that the Houthis have a budget. Clearly the internationally recognized government of Yemen should have basic accounting.
19. For the Saudis/the Hadi gov't: Provide a full and transparent accounting of the $2 billion deposit held in Saudi banks used to help traders access credit to import basic commodities. The UN describes massive corruption of these funds at the expense of the Yemen people.
20. Bottom line: At the outset of negotiations, the Biden team should use the power of the unfortunate status quo to drive meaningful Houthi concessions on the FSO Safer, humanitarian access while also getting accountability on the economy/budget from Hadi and the Saudis.[END]
