Disappointingly, there isn't a vaccine effect in the English coronavirus case data yet when looked at by age

1/
There seem to me to be three plausible explanations
1) Be patient
2) English over 80 cases were affected by other forces - eg outbreaks again in care homes
3) The one-shot vaccine isn't as effective as two for older groups

These are not mutually exclusive
3/
The over 80's case number have a different profile to under 80s in England. Here is the original chart drawn with actual dates, showing the peak was later among over 80s

4/
We won't know for a bit more time, but it would be very encouraging to see something in the data which we haven't yet

ENDS
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