Disappointingly, there isn't a vaccine effect in the English coronavirus case data yet when looked at by age
1/
1/
This is unlike what is being seen in Israel
https://www.ft.com/content/0cdc8563-1e6d-4089-bedb-b0f675c0d683
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528?s=20
2/
https://www.ft.com/content/0cdc8563-1e6d-4089-bedb-b0f675c0d683
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528?s=20
2/
There seem to me to be three plausible explanations
1) Be patient
2) English over 80 cases were affected by other forces - eg outbreaks again in care homes
3) The one-shot vaccine isn't as effective as two for older groups
These are not mutually exclusive
3/
1) Be patient
2) English over 80 cases were affected by other forces - eg outbreaks again in care homes
3) The one-shot vaccine isn't as effective as two for older groups
These are not mutually exclusive
3/
The over 80's case number have a different profile to under 80s in England. Here is the original chart drawn with actual dates, showing the peak was later among over 80s
4/
4/
We won't know for a bit more time, but it would be very encouraging to see something in the data which we haven't yet
ENDS
ENDS