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I can't believe the "sceptical" noises are already starting about the SPI-M long-term scenarios. How we respond to these and how they are presented is a political choice, but they follow from applying our best understanding of the current situation. >
> There is a very real possibility of a bad upcoming winter despite vaccines. Yes, the models may well have failed to capture some feature of reality (part of why I don't like them being presented too directly to the public) but all they are really doing >
> is something you could do back of the envelope about vaccine efficiency, new variant, attack rate, vaccine coverage etc. These figures are all very uncertain, but we need to plan with both eyes open - the optimism bias of the researchers currently likely >
> working up some blog on these matters only makes the damaging lockdown they claim to oppose more likely because we won't start the early, less disruptive actions that might avoid it in time.
