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Let's talk about how a scientist should make and then test a hypothesis. https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1357804286432870400
When one makes a hypothesis, one should look for other, simpler hypotheses which could also explain the data.
In this case, perhaps one might think that the interventions done to control COVID-19 might also control influenza. Since flu has a lower R0, this might be enough.
In this case, perhaps one might think that the interventions done to control COVID-19 might also control influenza. Since flu has a lower R0, this might be enough.
Another thing a scientist should do is to look for other data that might refute or support the hypothesis.
In this case, perhaps one might look at countries that didn't have a large COVID-19 epidemic. For example Australia and New Zealand.
In this case, perhaps one might look at countries that didn't have a large COVID-19 epidemic. For example Australia and New Zealand.
What's great about the Aus/NZ connection is
1) they've already gone over a winter during the pandemic, so we can see their flu seasons.
2) they didn't have much COVID-19, but they did have large interventions.
1) they've already gone over a winter during the pandemic, so we can see their flu seasons.
2) they didn't have much COVID-19, but they did have large interventions.
Since Aus/NZ had big interventions (like US/Europe) but they did not have much COVID, the two hypotheses make opposite predictions.
@MLevitt_NP2013's hypothesis implies that Aus/NZ would have normal flu seasons.
The hypothesis I suggest implies the opposite.
@MLevitt_NP2013's hypothesis implies that Aus/NZ would have normal flu seasons.
The hypothesis I suggest implies the opposite.
So, let's test the hypotheses.
Aus and NZ both had almost no flu season once the COVID response began (Aus had what looked like a large flu season gearing up).
In fact NZ's overall death rate dropped 10% below normal during their usual flu season.
Aus and NZ both had almost no flu season once the COVID response began (Aus had what looked like a large flu season gearing up).
In fact NZ's overall death rate dropped 10% below normal during their usual flu season.
receipts: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/australia-mild-flu-season-what-means-for-the-united-states
Please reach your own conclusions.
I would like to point out that a hypothesis like @MLevitt_NP2013's might explain why *influenza* pandemics seem to have a hard time starting during an influenza season. https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005749
But it's known that there is some short-term cross-type immunity in influenza.
