Oh boy it's my favorite rant topic. When people bring up how a rebellion in the US could work because "lol well Afghans beats the Soviets and Vietnamese beat the US!"

Even if we ignore the basic racist premise (If THOSE savages could do it, I could certainly do it and better) https://twitter.com/TroopsinContact/status/1357766916358754304

let's address what enabled both Vietnamese and Afghan Mujahideen success. So what are a few things a group or military needs to have to beat back a far superior foe?
- state support
- arms/arms resupply
- a supportive population
- safe harbor/sanctuary

Guess what N. Vietnam had?

State support: China and the Soviet Union were MASSIVE supporters of North Vietnam. The N. Vietnamese air force (yes, it existed) was responsible for the shootdown of almost 80 US jets, and all told the US lost over *10,000* aircraft in Vietnam. Beyond its air force the North

Vietnamese operated huge SAM & AAA batteries, tanks, artillery (rocket & tube) etc etc.

Arms/Resupply: in addition to the above the heavy machine guns, mortars, rifles, medium machine guns, pistols, grenades, & ammunition for all were supplied in droves by N Vietnam's sponsors

A supportive population: certainly within N. Vietnam, but also in large parts of S. Vietnam, particularly those that Saigon either couldn't reach or didn't bother with, the N. Vietnamese enjoyed significant popular support & had large swathes of territory where locals would risk

torture, prison, and death to support and supply the N. Vietnamese (but sure your neighbors will do the same for you, right?)

Safe harbor: when not dispersed within N. Vietnam or sympathetic S. Vietnamese villages, the NVA had Cambodia and Laos to hide in/rest recuperate. We all

know how poorly US attempts to quash that worked out (and at what exorbitant toll to civilians there). So maybe the N. Vietnamese were a little more than dudes in rice hats with granpa's SKS? But what about the Mujahideen?

STATE SUPPORT: Beyond the so-called (and greatly exaggerated) Arab-Afghans that enjoyed state support or at least blind-eyes in getting to Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Britain, and a host of others committed to massive transfers of arms & cash.

We've all read anecdotes about Pashtun tribesmen armed with Lee Enfields, but it goes far deeper than that. RPGs, mortars, artillery, machine guns, rifles, rocket artillery, AA guns, eventually MANPADS, and ammo for all them.

Arms/Resupply: See above, but also MASSIVE corruption

Communist Afghan military, tremendous losses via battlefield capture (entire bases overran, entire Soviet armored resupply columns destroyed/captured), and cross border resupply from Pakistan and Iran especially.

A supportive population: while support for the Commie government waxed and waned in the biggest cities, largely rural Afghanistan enjoyed near non-stop support for one Mujahideen group or another, if not the 7 party Mujahideen coalition itself.

Safe harbor: the remotest parts of Afghanistan remained essentially ungovernable for the duration of the war. But cross border safe haven also existed, especially in Pakistan across the porous Durand line, but also in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and to a lesser degree, Iran.

But let's talk casualties. In 1974 the population of N Vietnam was 23 million. An estimated million military and civilian N. Vietnamese died. That's almost 4.5% of the total population. Dead. And still willing to fight at wars end. For context that would be 14.9 million Americans

Between 1 and 2 million Afghans died, overwhelmingly civilians. 5 million became refugees. The pre-war population was 13mil. Between 7.7-15.3% of Afghanistan died in the war. For context that would be 25.4-50.5 MILLION Americans. And they kept fighting (and eventually toppled

the Afghan Communist gov).

But sure, Johnboi. You and your trusty band of Threepers or Oath Keepers with your Poverty Pony AR and Glock17, you'll definitely be a match for the US military. China and Russia will definitely risk world war to supply your merry band of misfits with

MANPADS, ATGMs, machine guns, rocket launchers, artillery, mortars, drones, medical supplies, food and cash to purchase more. And I'm sure Mexico and Canada will be happy to have you as guests and forbid the US from coming to kill you as you rest and refit in Cabo or Montreal.

Your Hornady Lock-N-Load home reloader kit will definitely be more than sufficient to keep the boys supplied with small arms ammo, right? Wal-Mart will definitely keep stocking powder and components, & you certainly won't use up your entire stash of ammo in your first firefight.

And what's a few thousand deaths among friends and neighbors? When Netflix gets cutoff, internet and cell service goes away, power and water no longer work, and your neighbors kids begin to die of preventable disease, you'll band together fight as one, right?

Oh, but you've thought past this, right? COIN strategists hate this one trick! You'll convince the military to turn on their leaders and give you the keys to their bases. That's right, those Ohio, Pennsylvania, California, NY, Florida, Maryland boys at Ft Hood will gladly gun

down their officers so that *checks notes* some dudes from San Angelo, Texas can take their arms? And they'll gladly give up their housing, medical care for their family, pay, safety, and food for the *checks notes* unfunded, unsupported, target of the entire might of the US mil.

This is a fantasy. A WILD fantasy. This nation has known civil war. A civil war that enjoyed popular support, had foreign support, near parity of arms and resupply, and in some cases safe harbor. And it was brutally and unceremoniously crushed. And the memory of it lives today as

ash in our mouths, with no one desiring to give up their comforts and safety today to watch their loved ones starve to death, gunned down by the world's best drilled and equipped infantry, droned from 30K feet, and tracked down by the collective intel organs.

You aren't ready for civil war. You're not even ready for civil ambush. You're ready for a few nasty skirmishes with the police, who will show back up in larger numbers and kill you like dogs.

Shut up and color. Cause you won't do shit. And you know it.

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