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I made a comment @DPogrebinsky post ealier about how I believe $PINS will destroy estimates for 2021 - he thankfully pushed back and made me question my model to see how outlandish it is:
Thread
I made a comment @DPogrebinsky post ealier about how I believe $PINS will destroy estimates for 2021 - he thankfully pushed back and made me question my model to see how outlandish it is:
Thread
The screenshot below is my model for how $PINS could reach $3.5bn in 2021
Remember as George Box says "All models are wrong, but some are useful"
I welcome anyones opinion on this (we all want to learn)
Assumptions
Remember as George Box says "All models are wrong, but some are useful"
I welcome anyones opinion on this (we all want to learn)
Assumptions
Int'l Users
- 20m additions per Q - reach 440m end of FY21
- 79m net additions in FY21E, 114m in FY20
- FY21E YoY growth 21% - FY20 YoY 46%
US Users
- 2m additions per Q - reach 106m end of FY21
- 8m net additions in 2021, 10m added in FY20
- FY21E YoY growth 8% - FY20 YoY 11%
- 20m additions per Q - reach 440m end of FY21
- 79m net additions in FY21E, 114m in FY20
- FY21E YoY growth 21% - FY20 YoY 46%
US Users
- 2m additions per Q - reach 106m end of FY21
- 8m net additions in 2021, 10m added in FY20
- FY21E YoY growth 8% - FY20 YoY 11%
ARPU Trends:
- No global pandemic in FY21 causing online advertising $$ to collapse (look at Q2/Q3 2020 ARPU)
- Advertising $$ is shifting online (ARPU will accelerate)
- Advertisers looking to $PINS over $FB
- $PINS in early stages of monetisation (long runway)
- Social shopping
- No global pandemic in FY21 causing online advertising $$ to collapse (look at Q2/Q3 2020 ARPU)
- Advertising $$ is shifting online (ARPU will accelerate)
- Advertisers looking to $PINS over $FB
- $PINS in early stages of monetisation (long runway)
- Social shopping
ARPU - Int'l:
- Q4 FY21 to reach $.80 from $.35 in Q4 FY20
- FY21E - YoY growth of 128% - Current growth rate of 66%
- Q1 FY21 ARPU to drop 20% from Q4 FY21 - QoQ growth of 30% in FY21
In comparison:
- $FB Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $6
- $SNAP Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $1.5
- Q4 FY21 to reach $.80 from $.35 in Q4 FY20
- FY21E - YoY growth of 128% - Current growth rate of 66%
- Q1 FY21 ARPU to drop 20% from Q4 FY21 - QoQ growth of 30% in FY21
In comparison:
- $FB Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $6
- $SNAP Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $1.5
ARPU - US:
- Q4 FY21 ARPU YoY growth of 50% to $8.91,
- Q4 FY20 YoY growth of 49% from $4 to $5.96
- Q1 FY21 ARPU to drop 20% from Q4 FY21 - QoQ growth of 20% in FY21
In comparison:
- $FB Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $53.56
- $SNAP Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $7.19
- Q4 FY21 ARPU YoY growth of 50% to $8.91,
- Q4 FY20 YoY growth of 49% from $4 to $5.96
- Q1 FY21 ARPU to drop 20% from Q4 FY21 - QoQ growth of 20% in FY21
In comparison:
- $FB Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $53.56
- $SNAP Q4 FY20 int'l ARPU: $7.19
I understand how stupid it is to predict Revenue to grow from $1.6bn in FY20 to $3.5bn in FY21 (YoY 118%).
Due to Covid19, ARPU collapsed in 2020 & gives easy YoY comps for FY21.
If $PINS kept ARPU at $1 during Q2/Q3, $2bn Rev in 2020.
- FY21 Analyst Est of $2.34bn is too low
Due to Covid19, ARPU collapsed in 2020 & gives easy YoY comps for FY21.
If $PINS kept ARPU at $1 during Q2/Q3, $2bn Rev in 2020.
- FY21 Analyst Est of $2.34bn is too low
