Round 2: Tips for selecting the right showdown captain in large field tournaments

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DraftKings salary multiplier makes it more likely value options finish in winning lineups but typically we need the slate’s top scorer to have a shot. Avg CPT salary for top 1% entries = $12900. Punting it off can work in cash & small fields but not optimal in the big tourneys.

40-burgers are nice but 99th percentile outcomes aren’t required. Captain’s on top 1% lineups scored 25.6 DraftKings points (before 1.5x multiplier) on average. We should be optimizing for ceiling especially at the CPT position but can get away with less than perfect scores.

To that point, CPT’s that finish in the top 1% beat their ETR projection by nearly 60% on average. Of course, the equation changes as projections increase/decrease.

Unsurprisingly, Vegas favorites score more fantasy points and are heavily featured as top CPTs. Here’s a breakdown of captain selection by team for top 1% lineups:

‘Position’ changes w/ team dynamics, i.e., Kelce is a WR but pass catchers have been the answer. When they come close to, match or beat their QB they finish in winning lineups more often because of the $ discount. DST/K rarely score enough raw points to join CPT discussion

The field has overused players at CPT as their projection increases, often leaving those who project *slightly* worse vastly underowned.

- Cheap CPTs make the pieces fit but we should be spending up on studs with raw upside
- Optimize for ceiling without overestimating the score it takes to win
- Prioritize Alpha pass catchers
- Ignore DST/K
- Find easy leverage by dropping down from slate's top projected play