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Have seen a copy of Spi-M's latest draft submission to SAGE.
Modellers sounding a deeply cautious note about the rate of lockdown unwinding that we can do safely in the months ahead, even with vaccines.
They say that some measures may have to stay into 2022.
Modellers sounding a deeply cautious note about the rate of lockdown unwinding that we can do safely in the months ahead, even with vaccines.
They say that some measures may have to stay into 2022.
Modellers emphasise that pace will be key: “A gradual lifting of restrictions can maintain hospital occupancy below 10,000; but this requires some measures to persist until 2022.”
They do not specify what measures in particular these would be but consistently emphasise speed.
They do not specify what measures in particular these would be but consistently emphasise speed.
They set out three scenarios. In each we continue to use measures to restrict transmission by 25% even at the end.
The purple line we relax in 3 months
Blue line 6 months
Yellow line in 9 months- this is the only scenario we keep hospitalisation below 10k (the horizontal line)
The purple line we relax in 3 months
Blue line 6 months
Yellow line in 9 months- this is the only scenario we keep hospitalisation below 10k (the horizontal line)
You'll note as well, as I say that assumes a continues 25% suppression even at the end
If we don't have that and unwind everything completely and quickly, even with vaccines you'll see they model that hospitalisation would be immense (graph on the right)
If we don't have that and unwind everything completely and quickly, even with vaccines you'll see they model that hospitalisation would be immense (graph on the right)
Crucially they say that "in both scenarios a relaxation over three months results in a resurgence in hospital admissions that is larger than that seen in January 2020."
Given hospital numbers are so high and will be for some time that could be catastrophic.
Given hospital numbers are so high and will be for some time that could be catastrophic.
But why? After all-what are the vaccines for if they don't prevent this?
Well they are modelling for considerable vaccine effect. But as they note in the next few months:
“There’s still a large number of people in vulnerable groups without direct protection, either because..."
Well they are modelling for considerable vaccine effect. But as they note in the next few months:
“There’s still a large number of people in vulnerable groups without direct protection, either because..."
"...they have not been vaccinated or because their vaccination has not stopped them becoming ill) nor indirect protection from wider population immunity (because many people in younger age groups have not yet been vaccinated.”
So vaccines are immensely useful but...
So vaccines are immensely useful but...
...even with the pace we're seeing it doesn't allow complete unlocking, even when the priority groups are done.
The authors add: “It is much less likely that hospital admissions will reach unsustainable levels if we relax measures based on data not at predetermined dates.”
The authors add: “It is much less likely that hospital admissions will reach unsustainable levels if we relax measures based on data not at predetermined dates.”
Ie a plea to politicians to go by the data.
They go on to say: "The longer we maintain measures that keep R below 1, the more people will be protected by vaccination and therefore the lower the risks during the next stage of relaxation will be."
They go on to say: "The longer we maintain measures that keep R below 1, the more people will be protected by vaccination and therefore the lower the risks during the next stage of relaxation will be."
There are huge caveats here, this stuff is difficult to model, the scientists can’t be certain of everything (or anything), so many uncertainties exist and we can't be sure of speed of vaccine rollout, be sure about its effect on transmission etc....
But what you can take away is that, internally, the scientists are advising extreme caution and as a slow a timetable as possible. Policymakers have more than just hospitalisation and Covid to consider. But it's clear that once more the science and the politics...
...are going to be pulling the Prime Minister in very different directions in the weeks and months ahead.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said:
"We continue to be guided by the latest scientific and medical advice as part of a collaborative international...
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said:
"We continue to be guided by the latest scientific and medical advice as part of a collaborative international...
ffort to tackle this global pandemic and stop the spread of the virus.
“At this stage our absolute focus remains protecting the most vulnerable and ensuring everyone in the first four priority groups are offered a vaccine by mid-February..."
“At this stage our absolute focus remains protecting the most vulnerable and ensuring everyone in the first four priority groups are offered a vaccine by mid-February..."
"As the Prime Minister has said, in the week beginning 22 February the government will set out a plan for taking the country out of lockdown, with the clear aim of taking a gradual, phased approach that is sustainable.”
More on Newsnight shortly. Tune in.
More on Newsnight shortly. Tune in.
Apologies typo
Deleted tweet above should be this:
They set out three scenarios. In each we continue to use measures to restrict transmission by 25% even at the end
The biggest like we relax in 3 months
Second biggest 6 months
Smallest line 9 months
Deleted tweet above should be this:
They set out three scenarios. In each we continue to use measures to restrict transmission by 25% even at the end
The biggest like we relax in 3 months
Second biggest 6 months
Smallest line 9 months
9 month like is the only scenario they forecast we keep hospitalisation below 10k
Repeat what I say above these are only models. Only as good as the data we have which is deeply imperfect. They’re also probably being conservative on vaccine pace.
Repeat what I say above these are only models. Only as good as the data we have which is deeply imperfect. They’re also probably being conservative on vaccine pace.
But does go to show the caution that is being advised to the politicians by the scientists.
More on Newsnight right now.
Dr Mike Tildesley of Spi-M on Newsnight just now: "Cases and deaths coming down is contingent on the level of control we now have. If we start to give up on that control too rapidly then the gains we get from vaccination would be offset by everyone mixing that much more."
"The real danger is that if we relax too rapidly we get another resurgence and we'll end up having another lockdown. We need to ease out of this very carefully so we don't lose the gains we get from vaccination."
"By doing it more gradually we have a better chance of getting back to normal and *staying* back at normal."
