Thread: the value of stolen bases (and why teams need to steal more).

Moneyball popularized getting on base. Sabermetrics proved that more people on base led to more runs, which ultimately led to more wins.

In recent years, the focus has shifted from simply OB% to OPS (OB% + SLG).

HR are more valuable than 3B, 3B than 2B, 2B than 1B/BB/HBP.

Everyone knows HR’s are most valuable, but P’s train just as hard not to give them up as hitters do to hit them.

In 2019 (last full season), MLB players hit 6776 HRs - the most in MLB history, 785 3Bs, 8531 2Bs, and 44,580 1B/HBP/BB/IBBs.

There were 2280 SBs in approximately 3100 attempts (73.6% success rate).

We already know that 2Bs are twice as valuable as 1B/HBP/BB/IBB. But 1B/HBP/BB/IBB are 5x more common than 2Bs.

Likely half the time a 1B/HBP/BB/IBB occurs, it will be a slow BR at 1B or a BR in front.

That still means there will be 22000 opportunities to steal with an above avg speed runner. At a success rate of 73%, there could be just north of 16000 successful SBs (currently only 2280). How many more runs would 16000 2Bs (SB after a 1B/HBP/BB/IBB)?

Run expectancy (RE) w/ none on, none out is .530.

RE w/ R1, no outs is .926.

RE w/ R2 no outs is 1.142.

A successful stolen base would net a RE of .22.

For those interested: R1 w/ 0 outs to R2 w/ 1 out (SAC bunt) decreases RE from .926 to .696 (-.23)

Argument against: Outs are finite - you get 27. 16000 successful SBs at 73% means 4320 extra outs.

Rebuttal: There are 131220 outs in a season. 4320 extra outs is 3% of total outs. HRs occurred on 3% of total PA’s (6776 HR/186517 PA).

Argument against: are you going to open up a base with a plus hitter up?

Rebuttal: No.

Argument against: R1 w/ 0 outs (RE .926) vs none on, 1 out (RE .287) is -.639. The cost of a CS is 3x more costly (-.639) than the potential increase in RE from a successful SB (.22).

Rebuttal: Don’t get thrown out.