I'm calling it now, y'all:

Trump will get convicted by the Senate.

For those asking for my reasoning, a big part of it is this: There are several GOP Senators -- Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Hawley, Scott, etc -- who have ambitions to be POTUS & see 2024 as their best shot. But they need Trump out of the way. Even if he's not running, he's an obstacle. 2/

Some think Trump plans to run again (I don't, but that's immaterial here). If he does, it's obvious why he'd be sn obstacle to their ambitions. But even if he doesn't, he'd still have so much influence that the GOP presidential primary would become a contest to kiss his ass. /3

They won't dare show it, but they're all tired of dancing for Trump to mollify his supporters. He's only useful to them as a martyr. Someone who was "unfairly railroaded by the Dems". Someone they can pay lip service to without having to actually service him with their lips. /4

This, of course, means that those Republicans with presidential ambitions can't actually vote to convict; they'd be ruining the ruse. But they CAN convince other Republican Senators to vote to convict. Those with less to lose. I think that'll be the play.

For the record, here are 17 Republicans I can see *potentially* voting to convict, under the right conditions:
Collins
Murkowski
Romney
Portman
Sasse
McConnell
Toomey
Burr
Tillis
Tim Scott
Grassley
Thune
Hagerty
Cramer
Daines
Cornyn
Sullivan