I've covered US secession movements for the better part of a decade now, and one point: The momentum, desire, and infrastructure for secession is very, very clearly tilted toward the (Trumpian) right.

There's absolutely no liberal/left equivalent. 1/? https://twitter.com/cjcmichel/status/1357778884863938561

Yes, there was some chatter about #Calexit a few years ago. But the main group pushing that is run by a pair of cranks/trolls, and no politicos (let alone prominent Democrats) actually floated secessionist support. There's (some) chatter, but absolutely no infrastructure. 2/

But on the Trumpian right, secessionist chatter is blasting forward, with no reason to think it'll stop. The heads of Texas/Wyoming GOP parties have already floated it, as did a GOP Congressman in DC. Austin just saw the first serious secession bill filed since the Civil War. 3/?

And despite (because of?) receiving funds from Moscow, the Texas Nationalist Movement still runs a smooth, polished operation. Their infrastructure—their communications game, especially—is there. They know how to lobby, and pressure, legislators. 4/?

Plus, they've got a *story.* Texas myths, Texas legends, Texas hagiography. ("Texas will again lift its head and stand among the nations," as Sam Houston said.)

They can read the political weather. They know the Trumpian right would burn this country down to retain power. 5/?

Then there's the timing of it all. The Trumpian right is absolutely going to lose its mind when Texas turns blue sometime in the next decade. Much like the Confederate states, there's added impetus to "get out while there's still time." 6/? https://twitter.com/cjcmichel/status/1316000708064407554

Will they succeed? No, of course not, because their conception of Texas—and of the US—is stuck in the Eisenhower era. But will they continue to capture and convince GOP legislators to get on board? Yes, absolutely. (Will it metastasize into further insurrectionist violence?) 7/?

Which is why you should not at all be surprised when more GOP legislators begin floating: "Well, what's the harm in having a secessionist vote?"

And to remember that so, so much of it is in bad faith, and rooted in white revanchism—all bordering on outright sedition. 8/8