1/ Having now read thousands of pages across hundreds of articles about the debate of PROGRESS or GREAT STAGNATION

And seeing learned people flip their minds--in both directions--(like Othello chips⚫️⚪️) given persuasive new evidence...
2/ I believe...

there are the contributing elements of "lag" and "mismeasurement" possibly behind the Solow Paradox (paraphrased as tech is everywhere 'cept in productivity)
3/ I believe...

there are salient anecdotes + examples NEAR and FAR (subject respectively to recency bias...and nostalgia for clearly-compounded effects of old technologies)
4/ I believe...

that science + tech breakthroughs are true SURPRISES with complex diffusion patterns and knock-on effects and don't fit linear or monotonic measures
5/ I believe...

that if the ZEITGEIST or dominant narrative is that productivity has SLOWED and we are in a 'great stagnation' (there are some people even more motivated to disprove it; and others who feel resigned + complain and amplify it)... WHILE––
6/ I believe...

that if the ZEITGEIST or dominant narrative shifts to a 'great awakening' and resurgent ACCELERATION of progress it is not because that is true––(i think it is all more random + immeasurable) but because we are noticing, labeling and telling new STORIES about it
7/ I believe...

people WANT to 'do something' and policy needs data OR incredible stories to build support that the policy is a good idea...

whether a new Endless Frontier Act, an incentive or an antitrust mandate (ala Bell Labs) for corp labs

me think it's all way more random
8/ And at any given point we can find SUBSECTORS as evidence for great progress and other SUBSECTORS as evidence for great stagnation

I'm ok w/the uncertainty of it all––and the CERTAINTY that some people want status, fame, wealth, respect and will forever be motivated to INVENT
You can follow @wolfejosh.
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