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#𝐆𝐖𝟐𝟑 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝
I think many FPL managers had Son as a
lock for #GW23 v WBA for a few weeks now... but given Spurs recent form and 4 out of last 5 games for Son being blanks, it's worth considering our options.
I think many FPL managers had Son as a
lock for #GW23 v WBA for a few weeks now... but given Spurs recent form and 4 out of last 5 games for Son being blanks, it's worth considering our options.
This analysis looks at some of the underlying stats for the following:
Bruno
Son
Grealish
Antonio
Bamford
They are all fairly highly owned (Antonio lowest at 22%, the rest in the 40-60% range) so hopefully these #s help you make your decision.
Bruno Son Grealish Antonio BamfordThey are all fairly highly owned (Antonio lowest at 22%, the rest in the 40-60% range) so hopefully these #s help you make your decision.
First things first, xG90+xA90 for the last 5 GWs... it's not an arbitrary selection, Antonio played 13 mins in GW16, 31 in GW17 and since then, he's played at least 78 mins (5 games total) with two full 90-min performances.
So to be fair to Antonio, I am looking at the last 5 games for each. I also don't like going back too far when considering a player's so-called current form.
Note: sorry, I don't look at non-penalty metrics this time around... I know those can be used to tell a diff story, but with most of these players likely taking penalties for their team, I didn't consider non-penalty stats.
𝐱𝐆𝟗𝟎+𝐱𝐀𝟗𝟎 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟓 𝐠𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬
Antonio 1.07 (431 mins, 2 G, 3 A)
Bruno 0.83 (449 mins, 1 G, 2 A)
Bamford 0.61 (425 mins, 1 G, 3 A)
Son 0.56 (450 mins, 0 G, 1 A)
Grealish 0.45 (450 mins, 1 G, 3 A)
Antonio 1.07 (431 mins, 2 G, 3 A) Bruno 0.83 (449 mins, 1 G, 2 A) Bamford 0.61 (425 mins, 1 G, 3 A) Son 0.56 (450 mins, 0 G, 1 A) Grealish 0.45 (450 mins, 1 G, 3 A)
Some take-aways...
Grealish is outperforming his xG and xA metrics quite impressively... a G or A in his last 4 games, guy has talisman theory in the bag, and is playing against Arsenal backup keeper -- could do a lot worse with your cap pick!
Grealish is outperforming his xG and xA metrics quite impressively... a G or A in his last 4 games, guy has talisman theory in the bag, and is playing against Arsenal backup keeper -- could do a lot worse with your cap pick!
Son 1 G+A stands out like a sore thumb, add that to no Kane (easier for opposing D to focus their efforts on Son)... the form portion of the equation for Son is not promising at all (the fixture is nice obviously, but more on that later).
Antonio's expected and actual stats are easily the best... he is the in-form striker in the league at the moment and WHU are on a roll having won 5 of their last 6, posting some impressive attacking stats along the way.
Now to the other side of the equation, who are these guys up against in GW23?
Antonio @ FUL
Bruno v EVE
Bamford v CP
Son v WBA
Grealish v ARS
Antonio @ FUL Bruno v EVE Bamford v CP Son v WBA Grealish v ARS
over the last 5 games...
FUL (che, mun, BHA, WBA, lei) -- xGA 8.06, GA 7
EVE (whu, WOL, lei, new, LEE) -- xGA 6.07, GA 6
CP (ARS, MCI, whu, wol, NEW) -- xGA 6.99, GA 8
WBA (WOL, WHU, mci, ful, SHU) -- xGA 9.25, GA 13
ARS (cp, new, SOU, mun, WOL) -- xGA 4.95, GA 3
FUL (che, mun, BHA, WBA, lei) -- xGA 8.06, GA 7
EVE (whu, WOL, lei, new, LEE) -- xGA 6.07, GA 6
CP (ARS, MCI, whu, wol, NEW) -- xGA 6.99, GA 8
WBA (WOL, WHU, mci, ful, SHU) -- xGA 9.25, GA 13
ARS (cp, new, SOU, mun, WOL) -- xGA 4.95, GA 3
West Brom are the obvious whipping boys here... below tweet shows just how bad they've been the last few GWs from a defensive standpoint. (hat tip to @FPLCanuck) https://twitter.com/FPLCanuck/status/1357715632607920128?s=20
Arsenal's D has been very solid in recent weeks but with Leno out, who knows?
Also worth noting Fulham's xGA is one of the worst in the entire league (over the last 5 games) trailing only WBA (of course) and SOU.
Also worth noting Fulham's xGA is one of the worst in the entire league (over the last 5 games) trailing only WBA (of course) and SOU.
I also wanted to dig into the home/away splits... I think this has less meaning than in a non-COVID 19 world with no fans in the stands, but it's still worth looking at I think.
Everton's D away from Goodison Park stands out to me in the table (note that these are season long #s). xGA is down by 24% away and actual GC are down by 33% away... the #s suggest that Ancelotti plays a more conservative game defensively away from home.
I captained Bruno in GW22 as a differential pick in the hopes of a Salah blank (whom I also have) so my rank could shoot up a bit. It worked but let's not kid ourselves... there was a lot of luck involved. 
Is Bruno "back" or was that 17-pt haul a beautiful confluence of events? We also all know the Bruno 'with & without Pogba' stats by now. Given Everton's defensive stats (particularly away from home), I may shy away from Bruno this week... but never say never!! He's that good.
this week... but never say never!! He's that good.
My summary:
I think a lot of mgrs will stick with Son (fixture > form) but the way Spurs have looked without Kane worries me.
Many mgrs will undoubtedly roll with Bruno after last week's haul... but, as noted, Everton's def approach away from home should be considered.
I think a lot of mgrs will stick with Son (fixture > form) but the way Spurs have looked without Kane worries me. Many mgrs will undoubtedly roll with Bruno after last week's haul... but, as noted, Everton's def approach away from home should be considered.
Grealish offers an interesting differential pick vs. a team missing its #1 keeper while Bamford looks to be back in form again. Based on the above #s, Antonio has clearly jumped into the discussion: the form is there and while the fixture is not WBA, it looks favourable!
