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[thread] A quick thread, for awareness, as we look ahead to what could be an active Spring severe weather season for parts of the country east of the Rockies this year...
The ongoing moderate La Nina is forecast, by CPC, to either persist through spring, or possibly weaken to ENSO neutral.
Research (not my own, see end of thread) suggests persistent, or weakening, La Nina conditions in the spring favors tornado outbreaks in the U.S.
Notable springs with persistent or weakening La Nina conditions include 1974, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Recognize any of those?
Notable springs with persistent or weakening La Nina conditions include 1974, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Recognize any of those?
While this thread is focused on La Nina springs, El Nino springs also carry some focused severe weather potential. NOAA made a nice map showing the transition phases of El Nino and La Nina, and which areas of the country are favored, based on research.
My goal here is simply to raise awareness of the potential for a more favorable upper level pattern for tornado outbreaks this season. By no means is this an official forecast, but more of an important pattern recognition note (similar to what we might do in the DY1-7 period).
What do we, as Meteorologists, do with this potential? Discussion welcome! Important considerations include COVID, operations, several quiet springs recently (for some of the country), residents new to an area w/no tornado experience, etc. What can we learn from past outbreaks?
If interested in reading more, below are some great papers/links to check out!
https://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1i5hB2XdMqG-Px-vQTxIINDO2fd1NYxz1pEBmFDH97LCkkMsHPQaZCCMs
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/CSWW-2015/afternoon1/002_csw_workshop_mar_11_2015_version2.0.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1lQRKrcrUKH9QrXSYD-wojDNE1c7tH-rY23pNSJVXsQf7YYJUfRec9sLM
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/ocean-temperatures-predicting-tornado-outbreaks/
A great, short video that summarizes some of the recent research ==>
https://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1i5hB2XdMqG-Px-vQTxIINDO2fd1NYxz1pEBmFDH97LCkkMsHPQaZCCMs
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/CSWW-2015/afternoon1/002_csw_workshop_mar_11_2015_version2.0.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1lQRKrcrUKH9QrXSYD-wojDNE1c7tH-rY23pNSJVXsQf7YYJUfRec9sLM
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/ocean-temperatures-predicting-tornado-outbreaks/
A great, short video that summarizes some of the recent research ==>
