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<1> Thread on $PTON - to discuss (not counter) the bear thesis. This is not a "crush the bears" tweet thread.
That's not my style.
I want to discuss the stock and look at a data driven approach to how they might do well or NOT
That's not my style.
I want to discuss the stock and look at a data driven approach to how they might do well or NOT
The market: 1 in 5 Americans (21%) were part of a gym or health club according to IHRSA the industry association. This resulted in about $95B in revenues. https://www.ihrsa.org/publications/the-2019-ihrsa-global-report/
The global health and fitness industry is still expected to grow (even given Covid) because of increased awareness of health and rising costs of healthcare.
But 47% of gym members quit within 6 months of joining
https://noobgains.com/gym-membership-statistics/
But 47% of gym members quit within 6 months of joining
https://noobgains.com/gym-membership-statistics/
Why do they quit? Well there's data on that:
a) Motivation, b) Cost, c) Convenience
What do they like:
1. Location preferences
2. Lower cost
3. Prefer to stick to their equipment (repeat the same exercise)
a) Motivation, b) Cost, c) Convenience
What do they like:
1. Location preferences
2. Lower cost
3. Prefer to stick to their equipment (repeat the same exercise)
This is a difficult industry folks. 20% of people are part of a gym and 50% of people quit each year.
That means 80% of people DONT, and a small % of them might want to , but the other 50% is also a good target
That means 80% of people DONT, and a small % of them might want to , but the other 50% is also a good target
$PTON has only 1 million customers. Compared to over 50M+ who have gym memberships in US and over 184M worldwide. https://www.investors.com/news/peloton-earnings-q2-2021-peloton-stock/
This itself should tell you something. 1 Million+ current members, vs 184 Million who go to gyms.
Well you might say - the gym offers more than just a bike with an iPad.
And you are right. It does. But 40% of people going to a gym stick to their routine.
Well you might say - the gym offers more than just a bike with an iPad.
And you are right. It does. But 40% of people going to a gym stick to their routine.
1. 40%+ gym members stick to their routine
2. 53% will continue if they workout with a trainer
3. 64% believe it is important to keep working out
https://www.statista.com/topics/1141/health-and-fitness-clubs/
2. 53% will continue if they workout with a trainer
3. 64% believe it is important to keep working out
https://www.statista.com/topics/1141/health-and-fitness-clubs/
$PTON is currently at $43B in MCap, on track to do $4B in revenue for the year and is trading at 10X EV/Rev and is growing at 100% YoY
For context, $PTON is growing faster than all except 2 SaaS companies - $ZM and $SNOW - will growth slow? Probably
For context, $PTON is growing faster than all except 2 SaaS companies - $ZM and $SNOW - will growth slow? Probably
