Read on Twitter
THREAD
I'm not an insider, so not confirming/denying this trade. But rumors flying Bears are getting Wentz, so I'm going to look quickly at a few things with him in case that happens.
I'm not an insider, so not confirming/denying this trade. But rumors flying Bears are getting Wentz, so I'm going to look quickly at a few things with him in case that happens.
First, Wentz was awful in 2020. Like, really REALLY bad.
57% completion, 6.0 yards/attempt, 16 TD:15 INT.
That's about what Foles did in Chicago last year (65% completion, 5.9 yards/attempt, 10 TD:8 INT)
57% completion, 6.0 yards/attempt, 16 TD:15 INT.
That's about what Foles did in Chicago last year (65% completion, 5.9 yards/attempt, 10 TD:8 INT)
But the upshot of that is that Wentz was good from 2017 (his 2nd year in the NFL) through 2019.
16-game stats for that time period are 64% completion, 7.2 yards/attempt, 4164 yards, 32 TD, and 8 INT. That's a 98.3 passer rating.
Would easily be best season in Bears history
16-game stats for that time period are 64% completion, 7.2 yards/attempt, 4164 yards, 32 TD, and 8 INT. That's a 98.3 passer rating.
Would easily be best season in Bears history
Of course, 2019 was his worst season of that good time period, and followed by a truly awful 2020 gives me a lot of pause about him trending in the wrong direction. That's why I'm not a fan of giving up anything meaningful for him, which Bears would likely do in a trade.
And one thing Wentz has never been good at is the deep pass. Even in 2017-18, his best 2 year stretch, he completed 39% of his passes for 12.1 yards/attempt. Last 2 years, that's fallen to 35% and 10.2 yards/attempt (similar to 2020 Bears)
NFL average is 44% and 12.3 yards/att.
NFL average is 44% and 12.3 yards/att.
Foles' contract would be highly manageable going forward, though making it work in 2021 will be difficult given their cap situation.
2021: $25.4M
2022: $22.1M
2023: $25M
2024: $26M
2021 fully guaranteed, nothing guaranteed after that
2021: $25.4M
2022: $22.1M
2023: $25M
2024: $26M
2021 fully guaranteed, nothing guaranteed after that
If Wentz turns back into his 2017-18 self, that's a sub-market deal. If he stays more like his 2019 self, you can live with it. If he performs like 2020, you can get out of it after this year.
This move reminds me a lot of the Foles one from last year. They're likely overpaying for a guy on a bad contract coming off a terrible season, because their coaches know him and think they can get better out of him.
It didn't work with Foles. I have my doubts with Wentz, and the cost/stakes are higher here for Nagy and Pace.
Should they make the move, I won't like it, but I'll hope it works out for the best.
Should they make the move, I won't like it, but I'll hope it works out for the best.
