Lake Chad Basin/BH affected area/IED emplaced on the ground/2020: trends based on incomplete data (e.g. largely under-reported injured, no systemic investigation/tech: exploitation of incidents) but solid source of information. Enough for trends. A short thread 👇
I have 222 incidents (Chad:2, Niger: 12, Nigeria: 186, Cameroon: 22) with 280 IED placed in the ground. Mostly on roads. For 2019, I had 135 incidents (Chad:2, Niger: 4, Nigeria: 117, Cameroon: 12) with 180 IED. A global increase.
First thing: 180 have been neutralized (in situ destruction for NE Nigeria) by security forces. Mostly through deliberate and routine route clearance (e.g. Maiduguri-Konduga-Bama axis). In 2019, 108 have been neutralized. Another global increase.
In Cameroon, it seems that often, IED have been neutralized upon indication given by the population to sec. forces. I have less examples in NE Nigeria and none for Chad or Niger.
112 killed: 27 civilians - 17 vigilantes - 98 military.
143 injured (actually more but reporting gap): 52 civ- 15 vig - 76 mil.
Civ victims mostly in JAS (e.g. Konduga LGA) and Ba Koura AoO (7 killed/14 injured).
For 2019, I have 155 killed and 169 injured: a global decrease.
And also some livestock going for grazing. So, IED are emplaced along roads but not only: routes.
Used in 20 complex attacks (3 in Cameroon/ExtrĂŞme Nord, 17 in NE Nigeria). Either in the scope of an ambush (ISWAP mostly) or to target reaction forces (especially observed in Cameroon)attack against a village or position and reinforcements, sometimes a day later get hit by IED).
Switches: mostly victim operated, that is to say mines by definition, with a pressure plate. Very few confirmed cases of command wire. No radio controlled switch observed.
The main charges are designed to destroy vehicles and kill crews. Mostly placed along roads to target vehicles. However, by their design, the pressure plates can be triggered by the weight of a human being. And some of these have actually been actuated by dismounted persons.
I was frequently asked: are there anti-personnel mines in Borno?
Actually yes. And it is not anecdotal even though just a gruesome modus operandi amongst others. Nigeria, party to the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention, officially recognized it in November 2019.
Frequent question/assumption: due to links with IS, IED would turn complex and vicious. Not evidenced. Factions use what works for them (capacity/effort/impact). Actually the technical design of IED is very similar across groups. Difference stays with modus operandi.
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