Does Concentrating Solar Power #CSP have a cost problem?

The global weighted avg. LCOE fell by half 2010-19, & auction/PPA prices suggest new projects in the USD 7-10 ct/kWh range. That's actually not bad compared to many bioenergy & geothermal (also dispatchable), but.. 1/n

Where CSP makes sense (e.g., high DNI), by definition u have a great solar resource & PV, with the right regulatory & institutional environment will be a lot cheaper (half or less)!

But CSP with low-cost thermal energy storage is dispatchable & complements variable PV & wind 2/n

SO we need to look at the cost/benefit of CSP relative to its costs, and that's where things get more interesting. Ideally, you need a full system simulation to do that, but we can also compare it to its competitors for a proxy. 3/n

CSP is dispatchable and with 15 hrs storage you can look at round the clock operation. How does PV+storage stack up against that kind of challenge? Note: I am assuming here, a place with no reservoir hydro or bioenergy to provide an equivalent flexibility 4/n

In that respect, CSP stacks up in a class of its own. For the moment. This is levelised PPA mapped against storage duration (hrs). There are some really competitive bids PV+storage (but they will get xtra revenues), but a solid block around USD 40/MWh. 5/n

Obviously, try avoiding being a remote island chain, as that pushes up prices (love Hawaii though!).

But whats striking is the gap out to @DEWAofficial 15hr CSP project. CSP is in a class of its own for longer duration storage, with costs that suddenly don't look so high. 6/n

But where do we need 15 hrs storage, thats the crux of the problem CSP faces over the next few years if its to scale. The sad truth is too many locations don't need that level of flexibility, because progress is too slow in rolling out PV & windpower. But its coming....7/n

So is CSP expensive, or are its unique characteristics/services not being properly recognised or remunerated.

I would argue the latter.

But the clock is ticking batteries are just going to get cheaper, while policy support lags for CSP, delaying the cost reductions. 8/n

Oh, and @IRENA and @WorldBank put out a report this week if you want to find out more about #cspan

https://twitter.com/IRENA/status/1357667500150947840?s=20

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