Feeling pessimistic about COVID & 2021?

Don't!

I'm not. Here's why

We'll likely have about 400M doses of Moderna/Pfizer by end of June

Enough to vaccinate 80% of adults

And that means a much better summer

Of course, we'll likely also have J&J, AZ, Novavax

Short thread

So by the time summer arrives, we'll have way more vaccines than people

Including for kids -- they'll likely get vaccinated over summer if not prior

That's supply. What about distribution?

Distribution problems were real in Dec/Jan

They are largely getting fixed

2/3

So I see no difficulties with us vaccinating 2-3M / day as we get into March/April. And vaccinated 150-200M by July 1

What could go wrong with scenario?

Pfizer/Moderna both suffer big production problems

AND

J&J, AZ, and Novavax don't deliver

Seems way, way unlikely

3/4

Next couple of months may be very tough (because of variants)

But by mid-spring, things will start looking better

And even by summer, some things won't be "normal" like large indoor gatherings

But backyard BBQs among vaccinated friends/family?

Safe and effective

End