Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Excellent news on cases, falling under 400; the lowest since 1st October. Deaths however are still not coming down much. Positivity remains low.
1/7

There were 399 cases reported today. That's very good news; I think it's fair to say that most of us watching the figures closely had become a little concerned that the rate of fall was slowing down. It's also probably fair to say that despite this figure, it is slowing down.
2/7

Obviously as you get nearer zero, there will be a slow-down in numeric terms, given a constant R, but I think R is not quite as low as it was a couple of weeks ago - i.e. the percentage falls we are seeing are a little lower as well.
7-day average: 569 - DOWN 21
3/7

R (estimate): 0.92 - UP 0.02. But this is doubtful and is due to an issue in the numbers just over a week ago causing the equation to have a lower denominator than is probably realistic. And this is exactly why we've been a bit concerned in recent days; that issue (caused by
4/7

bad weather, we think) means the trend is obscured.

In such circumstances, the positivity, though a very crude measure, becomes more relevant. So seeing 9.8% today is good. That's only the 4th time in recent months it's been below 10, and all of those are in the last 8 days.
5/7

There were 45 deaths recorded today. That's higher than I expected, and just goes to show the noisiness of the deaths data that I commented on yesterday. It takes the 7-day average up again, though still down on where it was 2 days ago.
7-day average: 31.0 - UP 2.29
6/7

#Ceredigion is not following the national good news on cases, I am afraid. We're up at 8. Low figures of course mean noisier data, but that's the second highest for a fortnight.
7-day average: 5.57 - UP 1.14
7/7

The #Ceredigion cases locations are:
3: Rheidol, Ystwyth & Caron
2: Beulah, Troed-Yr-Aur & Llandysul
2: Cardigan & Aberporth
1: New Quay & Penbryn

https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html