#Israel’s March 23 election campaign really starts today, after party lists finalized yesterday

Some preliminary thoughts <THREAD> #IsraElex4

1. Key Q still whether Netanyahu can get to 61 seats w/ Haredis, Bennett & now far-right union of Religious Zionist + Kahanist Jewish Power

Bibi engineered/guaranteed merger, Jewish fascist #3 on list w real shot to get in & be part of govt. Netanyahu has normalized all of this

2. Lots of potential damage on Left bc of electoral threshold

Meretz, Labor & Blue-White all hovering. BW esp could withdraw last minute. Joint (Arab) List has split. Islamist Ra’am running solo – huge gamble. Sign of times no one quite sure if Ra’am getting in helps Left or BB

3. At the top: Gideon Sa’ar needs to take more seats away from Likud. Hasn’t really happened yet

Lapid needs to create gap bw him & Saar/Bennett (let alone close gap w Likud) – hasn’t happened yet

Bennett needs to make sure he doesn’t get wiped out by Likud & far-right merger

4. On above point: Netanyahu is facing stiffest challenge from the Right since his first term in 1990s. Defections from Likud itself, settler leaders, rightwing local officials – all have joined either Saar or Bennett. Back in 1999 it cost Bibi the PM’ship. Likud still ~30 seats

5. Biggest ‘player’ in remaining 46 days of campaign still Corona

Netanyahu promised life would be somewhat back to normal by end of March (convenient) due to vaccines. But COVID variants, lockdown violations & vaccine hesitancy could overtake Bibi’s promises & elex needs. <FIN>