#FPLMatchups #GW23

Forward Thinking + The Little Prince Pick of the Week

Hi, and welcome back to FPL Matchups. This is where I turn my coaching lens on players, situations, and teams in the PL to gain some insight for FPL.

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Before I begin, I would like to right a wrong. I need to thank @FFScout for the incredible tools available through their member’s section. I am not affiliated with them, but I do highly recommend their resources.

In DGW19, I brought in Antonio, & in GW21 I sold Bamford for DCL. Such is the balance of life, but what stood out to me was that I had not thought of the FOR pos for 2GWs. An entire line of players forgotten for 2 GWs until I come & blow up a perfectly functioning unit of my team

My penance was missing out on a good number of FPL points, my reward is turning the matchups lens to the FOR position for GW23. I've deliberately left out Antonio b/c I think he is an obviously good pick.

For me, he is the best FOR pick in the game now, & I wanted to focus on the more bewildering cases.

1.Watkins
2.Bamford
3.Wilson
4.Lacazette
5.The Little Prince

Watkins
Ollie Watkins seems to have undergone quite the transformation in recent weeks. After 1 return in 9 from GW9 to GW19.1 (no GW11 & GW18), Watkins has now returned in 3 of the last 4 matches. He averages 1 in 4 for the rest of the season.

An examination of Watkins’ recent success may tell us that he is hitting some form, however there are some stats that tell us otherwise. I compare GWs 1-9 with GWs 19-22 as these are the matches in which Ross Barkley has started.

Watkins’ min/xG dropped from 165.9 during GWs 1-9 to 175.1 in GWs 19-22. His goal conversion rate also dropped from 33.3% to 18.8%. Of note, his rate of BC missed also dropped from 4 of 9 in GWs 1-9, to 1 of 4 in 19-22. So,Watkins is converting less, but also being less wasteful.

Watkins shot %, unlike his goal conversion rate, increased from 50% to 56.3%, and he has been taking 1 more SIB per game in the past 5 than he did in the first 8. Confusing stats for Watkins to say the least. Bring on the heat maps.

Reviewing Watkins’ heat map revealed something interesting. Watkins loves to play on the inside left side of the attack. In GWs 1-9 notice how deep many of his touches were. He would give Grealish the space around the box and Grealish would work his magic.

In the past 5 Watkins seems to have moved forward, begging the question: where did Jack go? Grealish has been less of a goal threat for some time even after moving back to his left-wing position & I believe the reason is Ollie Watkins. A look at Grealish’s HMs confirms the shift.

With Jack wide, holding the opposing RB, the lane between the RCB and RB opens for Watkins to exploit. The result of this is increased goal threat for Watkins since he much prefers this area of the field than directly in the middle, and a decrease in goal threat for Grealish.

Grealish, in essence, keeps giving his position to his teammates, and they all thrive there.
What I like about Watkins is his involvement in different game situations and areas of the field. This adds to his assist potential.

I could see Ollie and Jack developing a dynamic interchange with their positioning. This assist potential is a bonus over DCL. What makes Ollie stand out is the KP/90. Only Lacazette matches him.

Bamford
All I can say about Bamford is… Bamford is as Bamford does. He began the season spearheading a prolific attack that would feed him so many chances that he was bound to score some and score he did. Now, Bamford has 1 BC in the last 4 matches, and he missed it.

During that time, however, he has 1 goal and 3 assists. He has punished sellers concerned by his stats, buoyed by more than double the assists compared to his xA. Bam is as Bam does.
The heat maps show the pockets where Bamford receives passes, creates chances for others, and

takes chances for himself. The red in the passes received heat map is of course where he likes to receive the ball and shoot. When that pass is not available, Bamford drops to the red in the chances created heat map.

What concerns me about the xG Shots map is that Bamford only has a high xG if he is near the 6-yard box. In the last 4 GWs he also has 7 SIB, while only registering 1 BC, and has 3 assists w/ 3 BCC on only 0.62xA. I must be honest; I don’t understand any of it.

Comparing Bamford with the others in this list show what he may have that others don’t and vice versa.

Bamford’s strengths are his shots/90 and his A/90. Bamford has proven to be a good pick this season but strap in for the ride because Bamford is as Bamford does.

Wilson
It takes a certain type of manager to own Callum Wilson. I won’t brave the perilous waters of trying to describe them, but they know who they are. And they are proud. Owning Wilson is akin to braving extreme conditions of survival.

The highs are oh so high, and the lows are so very low. Wilson has enjoyed a fruitful spell the last 3 matches. Something seems to have clicked, or snapped? With Steve Bruce. He has changed to a midfield diamond and it is working… for now.

These observations must be taken with a healthy helping of salt because of the small sample size we have of the team in this shape. This is more something to keep an eye as we await more data. Isn’t everything though.

The heat maps show us NEW have added an area of the field from where they create chances. The black box is a question. It asks whether the diamond shape focuses the creativity in the middle of the field instead of wide.

In the last 3, Fraser continues to create from wide areas (12 KP, 3 SIB, 2 SOT, 1 BC, 3 BCC), the team is increasing its creativity in the middle with Miguel Almiron (8 KP, 3 SIB, 2 SOT, 1 BC, 1 G). The increase in these creativity stats has elevated Wilson.

Since moving to a diamond midfield, Wilson has 11 SIB in 3 matches. He has scored 2 goals in the last 3 with a healthy xG of 1.62, but he has missed 3 of 4 big chances over that time. Therein lie the lows.
The player comparisons show us that Wilson is has a nice 0.25 xA/90,

which may indicate that he is dropping into the tip of the diamond and opening space for Fraser and Almiron. This is an interesting development that seems uncharacteristic of the team, and yet well-suited for the team. I have a feeling we will be hearing from Wilson owners.

Lacazette
Lacazette has been quietly racking up good stats and some decent production since GW15 where the kids came out to play, and ARS beat CHE 3-1 on Boxing Day. Since then, Laca has 5 returns, including 2 double digit returns.

Since GW 15, no other player has more BC than Laca (8), unfortunately, he has missed 4 of them. His 139.1 min/xG is also nothing to scoff at. Laca is a player who thrives on BC and his next 2 opponents (AVL, CHE) have conceded the 5th (13), and the 4th (14) most BC in the last 6.

Comparing the heat maps from the 1st 14 GWs and last 8 matches, it seems Laca is dropping deep, into his own half.

The effect of this to the team is represented in Laca’s high xGChain in the player comparison graphs. Possessions that he is involved in have 0.76xG/90.

By dropping deep, Laca has been able to increase the xG of his shots. He has Saka to thank for this, but it is the interplay of both players that opens up spaces for higher percentage opportunities.

Final Thought
What is striking to me about these FORs is that they all have 0.58 xG/90. They have different things they do, and they are in different situations, but they all have concerns.

Ultimately, they are all very similar, and what’s interesting are which reasons we give weight to in making our choice.

Little Prince Pick of the Week
Back in December, I wrote about a situation I saw with Mahrez vs FUL.

https://twitter.com/FPLLens/status/1334942101801324544?s=20

Now, the situation has flipped. FUL have conceded the most chances from the left side over the past 6 GWs (30). To add, they have also only conceded 18 chances from the middle and 16 chances from the right, and they have conceded a league high 19 big chances in that time.

This week’s Little Prince Pick is Vladimir Coufal. He has has not seen as much attacking action in recent weeks, but I like him to fly the shooting star as he attacks a very vulnerable FUL left side.

Thank you, as always, for spending precious moments of your life with these thoughts. I’d also like to thank @FFScout and @understat for their resources.

And finally, @FPLMariner for #NetThatHaul, and @allaboutfpl for the platform on the blog. I do hope you check them all out here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQi3JpNjCUQngE6V1r5zi8g/featured
http://allaboutfpl.com 
Have a great weekend, and a green gameweek.

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