Read on Twitter
1/J
Wanted to address some issues in the thread below from another immunologist.
Should be a nice change-of-pace from dealing with obvious nonsense from disingenuous denialists.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357344439673397249
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/891040491214688257
Wanted to address some issues in the thread below from another immunologist.
Should be a nice change-of-pace from dealing with obvious nonsense from disingenuous denialists.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357344439673397249
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/891040491214688257
2/J
Serology isn't missing many asymptomatic + pauci-symptomatic infections, once one adjusts for sensitivity based on calibration (long-term sensitivity is better for anti-spike vs. anti-nucleocapsid)
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357348786062901249
https://jvi.asm.org/content/95/3/e01828-20
https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/54/eabf3698
Serology isn't missing many asymptomatic + pauci-symptomatic infections, once one adjusts for sensitivity based on calibration (long-term sensitivity is better for anti-spike vs. anti-nucleocapsid)
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357348786062901249
https://jvi.asm.org/content/95/3/e01828-20
https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/54/eabf3698
3/J
You're not going to get places with >55% seroprevalence with high specificity tests, if you're missing a lot of infections.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1357525667890528257
66% - 70%: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.17.21249913v1.full.pdf
74%: https://www.icddrb.org/news-and-events/press-corner/press-releases?id=97&task=view
https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofaa550/5977863
https://www.ins.gov.co/BibliotecaDigital/boletin-prensa-ins-15-01-2021-poblacion-susceptible-al-contagio.pdf
You're not going to get places with >55% seroprevalence with high specificity tests, if you're missing a lot of infections.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1357525667890528257
66% - 70%: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.17.21249913v1.full.pdf
74%: https://www.icddrb.org/news-and-events/press-corner/press-releases?id=97&task=view
https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofaa550/5977863
https://www.ins.gov.co/BibliotecaDigital/boletin-prensa-ins-15-01-2021-poblacion-susceptible-al-contagio.pdf
4/J
Those high infection rates are incompatible with a low herd immunity threshold (low HIT).
As a whole, the USA has not reached HIT; its infection rate is too low for that, nor is it under baseline non-mitigated conditions.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357350212260352006
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1341851013096083461
Those high infection rates are incompatible with a low herd immunity threshold (low HIT).
As a whole, the USA has not reached HIT; its infection rate is too low for that, nor is it under baseline non-mitigated conditions.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357350212260352006
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1341851013096083461
5/J
Once one dispels the idea that serology greatly under-estimates the number of infections, it's even more clear that the USA had too few infections to reach HIT.
A 10X multiplier is too large.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357348786062901249
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1347313999524880384
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1287542476216172544
Once one dispels the idea that serology greatly under-estimates the number of infections, it's even more clear that the USA had too few infections to reach HIT.
A 10X multiplier is too large.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357348786062901249
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1347313999524880384
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1287542476216172544
6/J
So even if it was unclear what caused a decrease in reported cases/day, it's clearly not herd immunity.
Similarly, even if someone's precise cause of death is unknown, you can still rule out causes that would leave obvious signs that are not present
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1357478511934492674
So even if it was unclear what caused a decrease in reported cases/day, it's clearly not herd immunity.
Similarly, even if someone's precise cause of death is unknown, you can still rule out causes that would leave obvious signs that are not present
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1357478511934492674
7/J
1) No evidence given that this wasn't due to behavior changes.
2) Other nations show a drop after behavior changes.
3) Mitigation + infections can curb cases w/o reaching HIT or sharp behavior changes
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357349528035155973
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/12/3174/5866094
https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1357116760567209986
1) No evidence given that this wasn't due to behavior changes.
2) Other nations show a drop after behavior changes.
3) Mitigation + infections can curb cases w/o reaching HIT or sharp behavior changes
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357349528035155973
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/12/3174/5866094
https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1357116760567209986
8/J
And I can't make sense of the seasonality argument.
Seasonality is largely behavior-based in response to weather. Yet the decrease in reported cases occurred while it's still cold, months earlier than the early 2020 decrease
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1354479581848285192
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2020-08-24&country=~USA®ion=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
And I can't make sense of the seasonality argument.
Seasonality is largely behavior-based in response to weather. Yet the decrease in reported cases occurred while it's still cold, months earlier than the early 2020 decrease
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1354479581848285192
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2020-08-24&country=~USA®ion=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
9/J
Herd immunity would keep cases/day from increasing even under baseline conditions, w/o cases limited by additional public health interventions + behavior changes.
USA is not at baseline.
Example: ↑ time at home, ↓ outside
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1353737022817640456
https://web.archive.org/web/20210205074443/https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-31_US_Mobility_Report_en.pdf
Herd immunity would keep cases/day from increasing even under baseline conditions, w/o cases limited by additional public health interventions + behavior changes.
USA is not at baseline.
Example: ↑ time at home, ↓ outside
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1353737022817640456
https://web.archive.org/web/20210205074443/https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-31_US_Mobility_Report_en.pdf
