Buying low on rookie WRs is a terrible idea and it is easily one of the most popular narratives this time of year.

Lets look at it from a different lens this time... If you are a dynasty day trader, does it make sense to buy-low and flip?

Let's Dive In.

So everybody knows that WR's take time to develop and they dont score points in year 1 so you can just buy them for less later?

Thats kind of the problem... Everybody knows this. Which is why they arent cheaper later

And the ones that are, you arent profiting on

#trainwrecks

We need some objective measure of "cheaper later"...

I use 12 spots in startup ADP. So if a player loses 12 spots in startup ADP from BEFORE their rookie year to AFTER their rookie year (I use May as the cut-off) then I consider them having "lost value"

These are the players you can buy cheaper after their rookie year.

From 2007-2019, 61% of rookie WR's drafted in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts have NOT lost 12 or more spots in startup ADP. IE you can not buy cheaper

There have been 69 total WR's taken in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts in this period.

42 have held or gained value.
27 have lost value.

Lets take a look at those 27 "buy-lows" that you are told to buy year after year after year

You'll hear things like:

"It takes time to develop"
"he was injured"
"he was raw"
"his qb was too bad"
"his teammates were too good"

Or any other story that you want to tell yourself

Here they are... Your rookie year face-planters.

It should be noted that DT tore his achilles tendon in March or something AFTER his rookie year.

But what about for you dynasty day traders that are just looking to make a quick buck and flip the player for a tidy sum? Is that possible?

Welp, starting from their new ADP that you bought low at... 20 of the 27 failed to gain back 12 or more ADP spots by the following May.

Thats 74% that you failed to capitalize on a "bounce back".

26% of the time it actually worked!!! YAY!!!

So when does it make sense to try to "buy the value bounce back?"

WR's drafted in the 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts from 2007-2019 have gained or maintained their ADP value 63% of the time after their rookie year.

56 total WRs.

So it is MUCH safer to trade your first round face planter for a rookie 2nd.

63% > 26%

In the third round of dynasty rookie drafts....

We have 58 total WR's with 34% gaining or maintaining their year over year value.

34% > 26%...

So if your holding a rookie face planter that is valued in the same adp range as a 2nd round pick, You'd be MUCH better of with the 2nd round pick historically.

If you are holding a rookie face planter that is valued at a 3rd round pick its basically a coin toss.

We dont know who will qualify for this until May from the 2020 class and last time I tried to guess I had millions of people telling me I was wrong about their favorite player so I am not going to guess this time....

All I'll say is buyer beware if you are shopping in the bargain bin.

*disclaimer - You may be able to catch a quick hype wave here and there, but overall it's a losing bet if the goal is value gains.