A little #nlpoli election analysis as we head into the last ten days of this campaign.

I believe the entire election comes down to six seats which I think are genuine tossups:

-Lab West
-Lake Melville
-Mt Scio
-P-West/Bellvue
-St. B/L'Anse
-St. G Humber

Outside of that I have the Liberals with nine "Completely Safe" seats. The PCs have seven.

I think there are six "Liberal leaning" and eight "PC leaning."

This puts them both at 15 seats.

I have NDP with one Strong and one Leaning.

I expect Eddie Joyce to win his seat easily. I think Paul Lane is favored in his district, but he has some solid competition.

I think there are two seats that the PCs/Liberals will exchange, resulting in zero gain.

If either party is doing very well in those six seats, it is an indicator of a possible majority. If those seats are split in any way, it points to a minority.

If the NDP win Mt. Scio or Lab West it will be a serious blow to the chances of a majority.

If the Liberals lose Placentia St. Mary's it may result in Eddie Joyce rejoining the party which would soften the blow of losing that seat.

I also think the Liberals have a better shot of flipping a few PC seats than the opposite happening. MPN may be a tossup?

Anyways that's my armchair thoughts so far. I could be full of it as always :P