Today's announcement that the early termination program is suspended indefinitely amounts to a crude tax on economic activity targeted, if at all, only at smaller firms and transactions that would have otherwise been granted ET (1/x)

For all the reasons @FTCPhillips and @CSWilsonFTC point out in their statement, which you should read -- this is bad:

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_statements/1587047/wilson_and_phillips_statement_on_et_indefinite_suspension.pdf

(2/x)

Those who view all economic activity (or at least all mergers) as bad will cheer this. They already are. That's fine. And expected: But large deals and those implicated competition issues were not getting ET. (3/x)

This is a policy decision aimed -- overtly -- at creating bureaucratic delay and sludge on all economic activity in the middle of an attempted economic recovery. That is a bad idea. It also has nothing to do with antitrust. (4/x)

The AT agencies are doing national economic policy here that has little to do with competition. Some will cheer that. But the rationale is weak sauce. It amounts to a "cheap" version of the failed merger moratorium (that was also a bad idea). 5/x

Predictions: losers from this are small deals, trades, and transactions that would have got ET but now face real costs. Big deals that implicated competition concerns were not getting ET. 6/x

A lot of the commercial world - including those with something to lose here - has been watching the rise of the "new antitrust" with popcorn thinking it was something that only happened to "big tech." That has always been wrong. 7/x

Those groups will have a voice in this process. And I suspect Dem congressional leaders will be hearing from them in increased numbers this year as the policies and their incidence become more and more clear. 8/x

A prediction: the number of second requests at each agency is about to skyrocket. The rationale of an economic tax imposed on merger activity applies to 2Rs as well. That at least is a bit more targeted and is also in the sole discretion of the agency head. 9/x

I predict the number of second requests issued in 2021 goes up at least five fold for that reason. Btw, I do not think the number of merger challenges (even with a budget increase) will rise proportionately -- i.e. the signal value of a 2R will fall. Bet me a bourbon. 10/x

A clear winner of the direction of these policies? Big law firms who bill out associate time on 2Rs. Big losers: small firms and deals that do not implicate competition issues; economic activity. Congrats, I guess? 11/11